Timberwolves vs Hawks

Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves head into Atlanta on a quiet one-game winning streak against a Hawks squad that has dropped seven straight and is just 5-11 at home, making Minnesota’s -190 moneyline attractive despite the road setting. With Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis and N’Faly Dante all sidelined, Atlanta is missing its primary creator, a key wing playmaker and its stretch big, while Minnesota’s only listed absence is Terrence Shannon Jr., leaving their core of Edwards, Julius Randle and Naz Reid fully intact. Randle has historically torched Atlanta (23.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game in 24 career meetings), and Edwards has been solid against the Hawks as well, while Onyeka Okongwu’s respectable numbers versus Minnesota haven’t translated into team success for Atlanta. Given Minnesota’s 21-12 record (9-6 on the road) versus Atlanta’s 15-19 mark, plus the Hawks’ severe injury situation and extended skid, laying the juice on the Wolves moneyline is a solid but not elite value play, worthy of a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:57([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810318))

Atlanta’s shorthanded offense and Minnesota’s defensive profile point strongly toward the Under 243.5 at -110, even with the Hawks’ reputation for shootouts. The Hawks are still scoring at a high clip (around 119 points per game on 48% shooting), but in their last 10 they’ve bled 130.6 points per night and are now missing Young, Johnson and Porzingis, which should sap some pace and playmaking despite Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s recent scoring surge. Minnesota, meanwhile, has allowed just 112.4 points per game over its last 10 and holds opponents to about 45.7% shooting, while playing at a middle-of-the-pack tempo (~100 possessions), so asking this matchup to clear 243.5 is aggressive. Timberwolves games have topped this number in only 5 of 33 contests and Hawks games in 16 of 34; combined, their average totals and their opponents’ average totals both sit several points below this line, reinforcing a strong statistical case for the Under. With injuries leaning against sustained efficiency and the total already inflated by Atlanta’s reputation, Under 243.5 gets an A- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:57([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810318))

Julius Randle’s bully-ball advantage against a thin, center-heavy Hawks frontcourt makes Minnesota -4.5 (-110) intriguing, but recent ATS trends temper confidence. The Wolves are only 13-20 against the spread and 10-15 when favored by more than a single possession, while the Hawks sit at 16-18 ATS and an impressive 9-4 when catching at least +3.5, reflecting how often their variance-heavy three-point volume keeps games close. Still, Atlanta enters on a seven-game losing streak, is just 5-11 at home, and will again be without Young, Johnson and Porzingis, forcing Onyeka Okongwu and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to shoulder oversized offensive roles against a Minnesota group that’s healthier and more balanced, with Randle and Naz Reid both historically productive versus Atlanta and Edwards able to target mismatches late. Given the Hawks just survived by bombing 25 threes in a loss to OKC, there’s always backdoor and variance risk, so laying the 4.5 with the superior, healthier Timberwolves earns only a B- grade, leaning on their talent edge more than their spread profile. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:57([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810318))