Nuggets vs Raptors

Scottie Barnes and the Raptors catch Denver at the right time, riding a two-game win streak and a 10-7 home mark while the Nuggets arrive on a three-game road slide and now have to navigate life without Nikola Jokic for at least four weeks, plus Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson and Tamar Bates all sidelined.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810323)) Toronto has been leaning on Barnes, Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley to generate enough offense and pace to complement a defense that’s held opponents around 111 points per night over the last 10 games, even with Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett out, and their league-leading fast-break attack is well-positioned to punish a tired, thin Denver rotation on the back half of this long road trip.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810323)) Jokic’s history of carving up Toronto — including a 28-14-13 triple-double in last season’s 121-119 win — won’t matter tonight, and with Denver already just a few games from slipping toward the West play-in range while Toronto pushes to solidify a top-four slot in the East, motivation and matchup both lean to the Raptors justifying the rich -240 price at home.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/recap/_/gameId/401704732)) With a high win probability but only moderate return at this number, the moneyline grades out as a **B+** recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 10:21

Denver’s offense without Nikola Jokic projects as a far cry from the unit that’s averaged 126.2 points on 51.4% shooting over its last 10 games, especially with Gordon, Braun and Johnson also missing and the team historically just 13-23 in games Jokic sits over the past five seasons.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810323)) Toronto, meanwhile, has played to a more modest 108.5 points per game over its last 10 while holding opponents to 110.9 on 46.4% shooting, and losing Barrett and Poeltl nudges them further toward a slower, halfcourt-heavy approach built around Barnes’ post play and Ingram’s midrange creation rather than constant track meets.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810323)) The Raptors still lead the league in fast-break scoring, but a depleted Nuggets frontcourt is likely to emphasize transition defense and clock-burning pick‑and‑rolls with Jamal Murray and Jonas Valanciunas, which, combined with both teams’ current streak-driven urgency to grind out a result rather than trade haymakers, points to this landing under the inflated 228.5 total more often than not, warranting a **B** on value and likelihood. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 10:21

Scottie Barnes’ recent dominance on the glass and all-around production — including a 23-25-10 triple-double in the Warriors win — gives Toronto a clear physical edge against a Nuggets front line missing Jokic, Gordon and Johnson, forcing Denver to lean heavily on smaller lineups and drop-in bigs like Jonas Valanciunas.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/tor/toronto-raptors?utm_source=openai)) The Raptors come in on a two-game heater and sit 20-14 in a tightly packed Atlantic race, while Denver’s L2 overall, 3-game road skid and suddenly fragile depth on a long trip raise real concerns about their ability to sustain shot-making from Jamal Murray and hot‑shooting wing Spencer Jones over 48 minutes against Toronto’s length and transition pressure.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810323)) Even acknowledging the risk of a backdoor cover given Denver’s 3-point volume and the fact that both teams are still short of the 41-game midpoint, where playoff urgency really spikes, the matchup still tilts toward the Raptors turning their fast-break edge and home crowd into a multi‑possession win, making -6.5 a **B-** play: solid, but with more variance than the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 10:21