Timberwolves vs Hawks 12/31/25 Preview

Minnesota’s 21-12 start, including a 6-4 run over the last 10 and a solid 9-6 road mark, contrasts sharply with Atlanta’s 15-19 record, 5-11 home mark, and active seven-game skid, making the Wolves clear moneyline favorites despite the travel. With Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis and N’Faly Dante all ruled out, the Hawks are leaning heavily on Onyeka Okongwu and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to generate offense, while Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Naz Reid headline a deeper Wolves rotation that has allowed just 112.4 points per game over its last 10 outings against Atlanta’s hemorrhaging 130.6 per night in the same span. Rudy Gobert’s rim protection and Minnesota’s size should further squeeze a shorthanded Hawks attack that typically relies on Young’s pick-and-roll creation, tilting win probability strongly toward the visitors even if Atlanta’s remaining shooters can briefly keep it tight. At -205, the Timberwolves moneyline carries a strong likelihood of cashing but only moderate payout, so I grade this play an A- for reliability with slightly limited value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 10:14([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810318))

Atlanta’s shorthanded offense, missing primary creators Trae Young and Jalen Johnson, undercuts what is normally the East’s fourth-ranked scoring group at 119.1 points on 48.2% shooting, while their leaky defense has surrendered 130.6 points per game during a 2-8 slide, creating a tug-of-war dynamic with Minnesota’s more balanced 117.0 scored and 112.4 allowed over its last 10. Even with Okongwu and Alexander-Walker in expanded roles, the Hawks are likely to be less efficient and more turnover-prone against a Wolves front line anchored by Gobert and supported by long wings like Jaden McDaniels and Randle, which can turn this into more of a grind than a full-throttle track meet. Given the sky-high 243.5 total, the combination of Atlanta’s downgraded shot creation, Minnesota’s top-tier size, and the risk of a blowout-induced fourth-quarter slowdown makes the Under 243.5 at -105 my preferred lean, though the Hawks’ defensive issues keep this at a more cautious B rather than a higher-confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 10:14([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810318))

Rudy Gobert and Minnesota’s oversized frontcourt duo of Julius Randle and Naz Reid should stress an Atlanta team that’s dropped seven straight, including a recent 126-111 home loss to Miami, and now has to cover without Young and Johnson against a Wolves side that is 9-6 on the road. Minnesota’s recent form (6-4 in its last 10 with a positive point differential) paired with Atlanta’s 5-11 home record and repeated late-game fades suggests the Hawks may struggle to keep contact for four quarters once Edwards and Randle start hunting mismatches against smaller or less physical defenders like Risacher and Kennard. With Gobert deterring drives and Minnesota’s guards—Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards—capable of punishing a defense that’s already allowing opponents to shoot nearly 48% from the field, the matchup trends toward a multi-possession Wolves victory, making Minnesota -5 at -115 a B+ play that balances strong matchup edges with typical NBA variance in a road spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 10:14([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810318))