NCAAF

Alabama State vs Southern

Underdog Energy Sparks a Surprise Upset!

Alabama State

Hornets (10-6-14-15) VS Jaguars

Mar 06, 2025 | 21:00 ET | Montgomery, AL

Southern
Moneyline Pick: Alabama State (+240) - B


Alabama State’s dynamic guard has been igniting the court recently, and his current winning momentum signals an opportunity. Despite Southern’s strong overall statistics as reflected in their heavy -300 odds, a key injury to their primary guard (G) has raised concerns at both ends of the floor, while the Hornets are riding a modest streak that primes them for an upset. Historical matchups have shown that Alabama State’s standout forward consistently challenges Southern’s defensive lineup, and the team’s recent surge, coupled with a noticeable dip in Southern’s recent form, makes this a compelling high-value pick. The interplay of momentum, injury implications, and matchup history all point to the Hornets as a calculated underdog—earning a grade B for its attractive risk-reward profile.

Over/Under Pick: Over 141.5, (-110) - Grade B+
Alabama State’s dynamic guard, riding a recent winning run, stands out as a key offensive catalyst against Southern, whose starting forward has been sidelined by injury, weakening their interior defense. Both teams’ current records and trending performance—coupled with historical mismatches where Alabama State’s sharpshooters routinely exploited Southern’s defensive lapses—point to a high-scoring affair. The momentum from Alabama State’s consistent scoring, Southern’s disruption in their rotation, and the matchup’s past scoring tendencies all lean in favor of tallying more than 141.5 points. This over/under recommendation earns a B+ grade, reflecting a sound risk with attractive monetary value should it prevail.
Spread Pick: Alabama State, +7 (-110) - A−

Alabama State’s standout guard Elijah Carter, a key player confirmed on ESPN’s active roster, has been visibly rallying despite the team’s recent short losing streak and a nagging injury setback to one of their influential forwards; this, combined with Southern’s uneven performances during their winning run and a noted historical trend of underwhelming defensive rotations in conference play, sets the stage for a surprise shift in momentum. With the home team favored by 7 points but struggling to maintain consistency in high-pressure periods, the underdog Alabama State appears ready to exploit this imbalance and cover the spread, offering a compelling monetary value at -110 odds.

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