Miami vs Ole Miss

Carson Beck and the Miami offense bring a six-game winning streak into Glendale, but Ole Miss counters with an eight-game run and a top-tier scoring profile that makes the Rebels more dangerous on the moneyline than their +135 price suggests. With starting back Kewan Lacy expected to play through a shoulder issue and Miami still managing a relatively clean report outside of depth losses like LB Malik Bryant and WR Daylyn Upshaw plus a few questionable defenders, neither side is decimated, but the slight concern around the Hurricanes’ defensive front amplifies the value of Trinidad Chambliss’ dual-threat chops (3,660 passing yards with a 21/3 TD/INT line and 520 rushing yards with eight scores) and Lacy’s 1,400-plus rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. There’s no meaningful player-level head-to-head history because these programs haven’t met since 1951, so the more predictive data point is how Ole Miss just dropped 39 on Georgia and 41 on Tulane while Miami leaned on its defense to grind out 10-3 and 24-14 wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, respectively, suggesting the Rebels’ ceiling is higher if this game tilts away from a pure slugfest. In a neutral-site CFP semifinal with both teams already having knocked off elite opposition, the true gap between Miami and Ole Miss feels closer to a coin flip than what a -160 vs +135 split implies, so I’m comfortable taking the underdog Rebels on the moneyline for the plus-money payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/01/2026 09:20.

Both Miami and Ole Miss ride extended winning streaks (six and eight games, respectively) into a climate-controlled dome that should, in theory, help offenses, but the way they’re getting there points me toward Under 52.5 at -115 rather than trusting their season-long scoring averages. Miami’s elite defense has allowed just 13.1 points per game while the offense has managed only 34 total points across playoff wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, and with the Hurricanes’ injury report centered on secondary and line-depth pieces plus an Ole Miss side nursing Lacy’s shoulder and a questionable defensive tackle in Kam Fanklin, both staffs have incentive to lean on the run and shorten the game rather than turn this into a full-track meet. Miami has already cashed the Under in 9 of 14 contests on the back of a front that creates pressure without constant blitzing and a secondary that limits explosive passes, while Ole Miss’ high-powered offense—top-10 in scoring and second nationally in yardage—now faces its stiffest defensive test of the year, likely trimming some of its usual efficiency. Factor in the CFP semifinal context, where coaches tend to take points, punt in marginal spots, and play field position, and the most common scripts cluster in the high-40s to low-50s, making a small value case for the Under despite the talent at quarterback and running back on both sidelines. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/01/2026 09:20.

Miami’s six-game heater and Ole Miss’ eight-game surge into Glendale set up a semifinal that profiles as a one-score contest, which makes taking Ole Miss +3.5 at -115 more appealing than laying points with a Hurricanes team that has been winning with margin but not lighting up the scoreboard in the playoff. While the Rebels do carry some injury notes—Lacy and multiple pass-catchers are listed as probable, and Fanklin is questionable up front—they still field an offense that ranks second in FBS in total yardage and top-10 in scoring, driven by Chambliss’ combination of efficient passing and 500-plus rushing yards, and that versatility directly stresses a Miami defense built around edge pressure from Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. Both teams enter 9-5 against the spread, but Ole Miss’ elite pass protection (just a 3.1 percent sack rate) and explosive run game have already held up against Georgia’s defense, while Miami’s attack has become more conservative and run-heavy behind Mark Fletcher as the stakes have risen, all of which lowers the likelihood of a Hurricanes blowout. Given the hook over the key number of 3 on a neutral field with a national-title berth on the line, I expect Ole Miss’ offense to keep this inside a field goal—and potentially win outright—often enough that Rebels +3.5 is my favorite way to play the side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/01/2026 09:20.