Vanderbilt vs Tennessee

With both teams on two-game winning streaks and Vanderbilt’s offense peaking behind Diego Pavia’s dual-threat explosion after dropping 484 yards on Kentucky, the plus-money side is hard to ignore despite Tennessee’s six-game on-field streak in the series and Neyland’s intimidating environment. Tennessee has its own momentum after finally winning in The Swamp, but Aguilar’s offense has been more turnover-prone than Vanderbilt’s, while the Commodores are giving up nearly a touchdown less per game and have been the far more reliable side against quality opponents, including three wins over ranked teams compared with Tennessee’s winless mark against ranked foes this season. The Vols’ secondary and depth are dinged up enough to matter against a Vanderbilt passing game that now spreads the ball efficiently to Tre Richardson, Junior Sherrill and Eli Stowers, and Pavia’s ugly 8-of-17, 104-yard outing against Tennessee last year gives Clark Lea’s staff an obvious blueprint for adjustments rather than a talent problem to overcome. With Vanderbilt 9-2 overall, elite against the spread, and still alive on the fringes of the College Football Playoff picture while Tennessee is mostly angling to spoil and improve bowl positioning, I’m willing to take the extra price on the more balanced team and side with Vanderbilt on the moneyline at +120. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:13am

Both offenses profile as fireworks: Tennessee ranks among the nation’s top handful in scoring and passing with Aguilar over 3,000 yards and Chris Brazzell II stretching the field, while Vanderbilt sits just behind in points per game and yards, with Pavia’s efficiency and legs forcing defenses to cover every blade of grass. Recent form backs a shootout script, as Vanderbilt has hung 45 points in back-to-back weeks and Tennessee just dropped 31 in Gainesville by halftime, and both attacks sustain drives with top-tier third-down success that stresses even competent defenses over four quarters. Tennessee’s defense has created havoc with fumbles but still allows more than four touchdowns per game and has multiple defensive backs plus depth pieces either out or questionable, a shaky setup against Vanderbilt’s vertical passing and backs who can win in space, while the Commodores’ improved front has not consistently faced an offense with Tennessee’s tempo and vertical stress. Given that three of the last four meetings have landed in the mid-60s or higher and both sides are now even more pass-forward with elite quarterback play and clear motivation to keep scoring margin in their favor for committee optics and bowl positioning, I lean over 65.5 at -119 despite the lofty number, expecting aggressive playcalling on both sidelines to push this toward another rivalry track meet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:13am

Market respect for Tennessee’s home-field and series dominance makes sense, but catching Vanderbilt at +2.5 feels like the sharper side when you weigh how differently these teams have performed relative to expectations and how their strengths collide. Vanderbilt is 9-2 straight up with a defense that has quietly held opponents under 22 points per game and has traveled well, while Tennessee sits just above .500 against the number and has repeatedly let opponents hang around because of a leaky pass defense and spells of offensive volatility despite Aguilar’s gaudy season stats. The Commodores’ clean bill of health among their primary skill players contrasts with Tennessee’s banged-up secondary and questionable depth up front, a mismatch when Pavia can extend plays and attack downfield to Richardson and Sherrill in ways that forced Auburn and Kentucky into track meets, and the Vols’ recent success has come against weaker defenses than what they’ll see here. Add in that Vanderbilt’s playoff hopes and bid for the first 10-win season in school history give them as much urgency as any team in the country while Tennessee is more in the spoiler-and-bowl-upgrade lane, and taking Vandy with the key cushion under a field goal at -108 looks like the better combination of value and likelihood, even acknowledging Neyland’s edge and the Vols’ six straight on-field wins in the rivalry. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:13am