USC vs TCU

USC’s moneyline at -235 looks justified given the combination of a 9-3 season behind Jayden Maiava’s top-tier efficiency and a late-season 4-1 surge, against a TCU team that, while dangerous, is breaking in Ken Seals for his first start of the year after Josh Hoover’s opt-out. The Trojans’ offense is clearly diluted without their top three pass-catchers, but Lincoln Riley’s track record of manufacturing production with new skill talent plus USC’s sizable per-game scoring edge over the Frogs should still tilt the straight-up matchup, especially with TCU also adjusting to a new play-caller. Historical series results slightly favor TCU overall, yet none of the current skill players have meaningful head-to-head reps, and USC has been more consistent week to week against a tougher schedule. Laying this price isn’t cheap and bowl volatility is real, but backing the better quarterback, deeper roster, and more proven staff on the moneyline remains the most straightforward way to leverage USC’s advantages without worrying about a backdoor cover. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:20am

The total at 55.5 opened higher before being bet down, and the current configuration of both offenses points slightly toward the Under: USC averaged north of 36 points per game in the regular season but is now without Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, and top tight end production, while TCU’s 30.8 points per game were largely engineered by Hoover, who won’t play, leaving Seals and a tweaked scheme to find rhythm on the fly. Maiava is good enough to elevate a retooled receiver room, and Eric McAlister plus TCU’s tempo keep shootout potential on the table, but both units are asking new pieces to shoulder primary roles against Power-conference athletes, which often shows up as stalled red-zone trips and drive-killing miscommunications in bowls. With each side also hitting the Over only half the time this season and USC’s scoring notably lower away from Los Angeles, a slightly more controlled, mid-40s scoring script is a reasonable expectation, making the Under 55.5 at -110 a modest value lean rather than a hammer spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:20am

Against the spread, the combination of USC’s heavy opt-outs and TCU’s continuity at receiver and running back nudges value toward TCU +6.5 at -105, even if USC is the more likely outright winner. The Trojans are just 5-7 ATS and have struggled to cover as favorites of more than a field goal, while the Frogs finished 6-6 ATS and ended the regular season with consecutive wins and covers, including that 22-point romp over Cincinnati, suggesting they found something late in the year. With Hoover out, the unknown of Seals is real, but he’s a veteran with SEC starting experience throwing to McAlister and a backfield that’s intact, whereas USC is replacing the majority of its receiving production and is shuffling along the offensive line and at multiple defensive spots. In a neutral-site dome that still offers a regional crowd edge to the Texas school, a scenario where Maiava does enough to win but a gritty TCU offense (or special teams) sneaks in a backdoor within one score is very live, making the Frogs and the points the more attractive side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:20am