Texas State vs Arizona State

Arizona State enters this matchup with a retooled offense that looks to carry over its non-conference success from last season, while the defense faces a Texas State team that has consistently struggled away from home. The Sun Devils’ roster depth and overall experience stand out, especially given the demanding conditions expected at kickoff. Even with the Bobcats introducing a new offensive system designed to create tempo, the gap in proven talent and the advantage of playing in Tempe tilt the outlook firmly toward the home side. That balance of depth, conditioning, and system continuity makes this a strong pick for bettors seeking stability in what could otherwise look like a trap spot.

From a betting standpoint, the line may seem steep at first glance, but the combination of home-field comfort and a more seasoned two-deep rotation justifies the number. Texas State’s track record on the road raises red flags for anyone considering the underdog, while Arizona State offers a safer prediction for those wanting to avoid volatility. Sometimes the most straightforward bet is the right call, and here the pick favors the Sun Devils to take care of business without much drama.

This prediction gets a B- grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 13/09/2025 at 9:00am

Early in the season, defenses often lag in execution, but this matchup presents unique conditions that suggest otherwise. When these programs have played in extreme heat, scoring has dipped due to reduced tempo and longer breaks. Arizona State’s transition into a fresh offensive scheme could limit early efficiency, while Texas State brings in a new quarterback behind a line that struggled heavily in pass protection last year. On top of that, the Sun Devils’ defensive approach has consistently held non-conference foes in check, with a scheme that thrives on pressuring offenses into mistakes. All of these elements point to a game that plays slower and tighter than expected, keeping the number lower on the scoreboard.

From a wagering angle, totals can be tricky in early September, but the situational factors here lean strongly toward the under. Between acclimation to new systems, the heat-driven pace reduction, and a defense that has proven capable of controlling games against comparable opponents, the prediction favors a lower-scoring affair. It’s not always easy to back the under when early-season energy runs high, but this is a bet that fits the conditions and the matchup.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 13/09/2025 at 9:01am

Texas State has quietly been one of the more reliable underdogs in recent seasons, particularly when catching double-digit spreads. Their defensive identity under Jonathan Patke emphasizes limiting explosive plays, and that discipline has kept them competitive against more talented rosters. Arizona State, meanwhile, has shown upside but still struggles with finishing drives, a flaw that looms large when laying a big number. Against Group of Five competition, their scoring output has been more modest than the line might suggest, making it tougher to trust a runaway result. That balance between a steady secondary and an opponent prone to red-zone stalls creates a realistic path for Texas State to hang within the margin.

From a betting perspective, the matchup sets up well for those who prefer value over chalk. While Arizona State has the home-field edge and deeper rotation, the pick leans toward Texas State covering thanks to their proven ability to frustrate opponents and keep games tighter than expected. If their run game finds rhythm against a defense still ironing out issues up front, the back door is wide open. This isn’t a call for an outright upset, but as far as the spread is concerned, it’s a prediction worth considering.

This prediction gets a C+ grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 13/09/2025 at 9:02am