Tulane vs Ole Miss

Sources: Official Tulane athletics releases on their 2025 record, AAC championship win over North Texas, and College Football Playoff berth, plus Jake Retzlaff’s season production and dual-threat profile; official Ole Miss and national statistical pages detailing the Rebels’ 11-1 season, offensive efficiency, and defensive splits; national and team recaps of Ole Miss’ 45-10 home win over Tulane in September highlighting total yardage and rushing figures; preview and analytics pieces outlining Chambliss’ emergence as starter, Ole Miss’ recent win streak, and the run-defense concerns entering the CFP; and national schedule/bracket resources confirming this first-round matchup’s seeding, date, time, and location in Oxford.

The total at 56.5 sits just above the 55 points these teams produced in the September meeting (45-10 Rebels), and while both offenses have impressive season-long efficiency numbers—Ole Miss around 37 points per game with a top-10 yardage profile and Tulane at roughly 29 points per game with strong balance—the matchup characteristics and playoff context nudge me slightly to the Under: Chambliss and an explosive Ole Miss passing game will still get theirs, but Tulane’s best path after winning the American is to lean into its retooled rushing attack (with Jamauri McClure emerging late in the year) and Retzlaff’s legs to shorten the game against a Rebel run defense that has slipped to middle-of-the-pack nationally, which both attacks the biggest Ole Miss weakness and bleeds clock. At the same time, Ole Miss’ elite pass defense can force Tulane into long, methodical drives rather than quick strikes, and first-round CFP tension plus new head coach Pete Golding’s defensive mindset for the Rebels both point toward slightly more conservative fourth-down and red-zone decisions than in a regular-season track meet. I’m projecting something in the neighborhood of 34-20 or 35-21 Ole Miss—competitive enough for Tulane to hang around, but with just enough stalled drives and field goals to keep this below 56.5—so I’ll take Under 56.5 at -110 with a modest value Grade B-, acknowledging that a couple of explosive plays on either side could still push this over the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:02

Against the spread, the +17.5 with Tulane looks more attractive than laying a massive number with Ole Miss, because the gap between the midseason 45-10 blowout and where these teams are now has meaning: Tulane has since solidified around Retzlaff’s dual-threat skill set, leaned harder into a downhill rushing identity (as showcased in the American title win), and continues to generate disruptive plays on defense, while Ole Miss brings a CFP-caliber passing offense but a run defense that has quietly become a liability, including allowing 178 rushing yards to Tulane even in that earlier rout. Add in the Rebels’ coaching transition from Lane Kiffin to Pete Golding, the heightened playoff pressure at home, and a Green Wave locker room fueled by both revenge for September and the program’s first-ever playoff shot, and you get a game script where Ole Miss still has a strong chance to control the scoreboard yet finds it harder to completely separate from an opponent that can pound the vulnerable front seven, shorten possessions, and open up backdoor-cover scenarios if Chambliss and company ease off late with a two- or three-score lead. My median expectation is something like a 10–14 point Rebel win, which makes Tulane +17.5 at -110 a solid value play worthy of a Grade B, especially for bettors comfortable backing a live underdog that may be outgunned but is built well enough in the trenches to keep this closer than the market implies. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:02