Texas Tech vs West Virginia

Texas Tech rolls into Morgantown on a four-game winning streak, with all 10 of its victories coming by at least 20 points and an average margin north of 30, while West Virginia just had a two-game surge snapped in a 25-23 loss at Arizona State to fall to 4-7 and officially out of the postseason picture. Behren Morton is expected to start again for a Red Raiders offense scoring over 42 points per game and backed by a defense allowing just over 12 per outing and ranking among the nation’s best against the run, whereas West Virginia’s freshman QB Scotty Fox Jr. now leads an offense that’s sub-24 points per game and has lost leading rusher Diore Hubbard along with a cluster of other backs, receivers, and backup quarterbacks to injury. This is also a classic motivation mismatch: Texas Tech needs a win to lock up a Big 12 Championship Game berth and keep its playoff resume shiny, while WVU’s main edges are pride, Senior Day emotion, and home field. Historically, the Red Raiders have owned this matchup lately with three wins in the last four meetings and a 136-65 scoring edge in that span, including last year’s 52-15 demolition, underscoring the talent gap that still exists between these rosters. At a moneyline price of -3333, the implied edge is almost entirely about safety rather than value, so I’ll back Texas Tech on the moneyline but only at a C+ grade given the minimal return relative to the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:02am

Even with Texas Tech’s explosive reputation, the profile of this game skews toward a lower total than 52.5, as the Red Raiders pair a 42.6-points-per-game offense with a defense surrendering just 12.3 points and 266 yards per game, while West Virginia averages only 23.7 points and 364.9 yards and now has its primary bell-cow back and a host of skill players unavailable. Texas Tech’s 10 wins have all been comfortable but often methodical, with a balanced attack (near 482 yards per game) and a run game led by Cameron Dickey that lets them lean on opponents and shorten second halves rather than chase style points in shootouts, which helps explain a modest over record despite the huge scoring margins. On the other side, WVU’s offense is increasingly dependent on chunk plays from Fox and receivers like Cam Vaughn and Cyncir Bowers instead of a consistent ground game, a dangerous formula against a front that’s first nationally against the run and among the leaders in sacks and forced turnovers, especially with the backfield so thinned by injury. Market totals have ticked down around 53.5 and a number of projection-driven previews are landing in the low-to-mid 40s, which aligns with West Virginia’s last three games averaging just under 50 total points and with one prominent breakdown projecting something like 31-13 to Texas Tech. Putting it together, I like Under 52.5 at -114 as a B-grade play, expecting Tech’s defense and WVU’s attrition to keep this comfortably under the number even if the Red Raiders control the game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:02am

Against the spread, Texas Tech has been as dominant as its record suggests, sitting 9-2 ATS with a recent run that includes blowout covers over BYU and UCF and every victory by at least 20 points, while West Virginia is a solid 7-4 ATS but now steps up in class against the best defense it has seen all season with a severely depleted depth chart. Jacob Rodriguez and a loaded Red Raiders front seven have keyed a unit that ranks top-five nationally in scoring defense, top-five in total defense, and near the top in turnovers forced and sacks, a brutal matchup for a Mountaineers offense that just managed 68 rushing yards on 38 carries at Arizona State and now has Hubbard and multiple other offensive weapons sidelined. Freshman QB Fox has flashed big-play ability, but asking him to sustain drives behind a shaky run game against this defense for four quarters, even with Senior Day juice, is a big ask when Texas Tech brings a playoff-level edge and needs a convincing win to impress both the Big 12 and CFP committees. Recent series history reinforces the risk of a blowout, as Tech’s three wins over WVU since 2021 have all been by at least 23 points, and Joey McGuire’s team just covered a nearly identical -23.5 spread in the 48-9 thrashing of UCF, a game that looked a lot like the script we can expect here. I’ll lay the points with Texas Tech -23.5 at -119 and grade it a B, projecting a margin in the high 20s in a game state that still favors the under. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:02am