SMU vs California

Kevin Jennings pilots an SMU offense that has rattled off three straight wins — including a 38-6 demolition of Louisville where he posted a third consecutive 300-yard passing game — while Cal limps in having dropped three of its last four and just fired Justin Wilcox after a penalty-filled 31-10 Big Game loss to Stanford. The Mustangs already handled the Bears 38-6 last year and hold a 2-0 all-time edge in the series, and their 32.7 points per game paired with a defense allowing only 19.1 underscores why they sit as heavy road chalk in a win-and-in spot for the ACC Championship and a live College Football Playoff path. Cal’s transition to interim coach Nick Rolovich on short notice, a freshman quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele facing one of the country’s most opportunistic secondaries, and season-ending injuries to key defenders like outside linebacker Ryan McCulloch tilt the stability and high-leverage moments toward SMU. Laying -556 offers limited payout, but with the Mustangs’ November track record, turnover-hungry defense, and superior quarterback play, this is still a high-confidence side, graded A- for strong likelihood of cashing but modest monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:23am

This total hinges on whether Cal can hold up its end of the scoreboard against an SMU defense that’s top-tier in takeaways and sacks while the Bears’ own identity has leaned on a stingy pass defense that ranks near the top of the ACC in yards and touchdowns allowed. Sagapolutele and Cal have been streaky and penalty-prone, and their rushing attack has been one of the least efficient in FBS, bottoming out at just 12 rushing yards and 0.5 yards per carry in the Stanford loss; that profile is a rough match against an SMU front that lives in the backfield and has logged 34 sacks in 11 games. On the other side, Jennings and a deep receiver room featuring Jordan Hudson and Yamir Knight can certainly explode, but Cal’s coverage unit plus a slightly conservative game script from Rolovich in his first game at the helm both argue for a few more stalled drives and field goals than the market expects. With SMU favored by nearly two touchdowns and both defenses capable of tightening in the red zone, a game in the low 40s to high 40s feels more likely than a shootout, though the juiced -125 price and SMU’s explosive tempo keep this to a B rather than a higher grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:23am

From a spread perspective, SMU’s +13.6 average scoring margin (32.7 scored vs 19.1 allowed) lines up cleanly with a -13.5 number, and context pushes this toward the Mustangs covering: Jennings has thrown for over 3,100 yards with 24 TDs, the pass rush sits top-10 nationally in sacks, and this group just beat Cal by 32 last season when the Bears were healthier and more settled. Cal’s current form — 1-3 in its last four, a run game that ranks near the bottom of FBS in both total rushing yards and yards per carry, and a freshman quarterback who was sacked five times and hit with multiple strip-sacks in the Stanford loss — now has to deal with SMU’s pressure packages while also adjusting to an interim head coach six days after a rivalry meltdown. SMU, meanwhile, is riding a three-game surge, historically strong in November under Rhett Lashlee, and playing for an ACC title berth and CFP access, whereas Cal is already bowl-eligible and more focused on stabilizing under new leadership with a defense missing pieces like starting outside linebacker Ryan McCulloch. The backdoor is a risk with a high-volume passing game at home, but the motivational edge, matchup in the trenches, and recent head-to-head dominance make SMU -13.5 at -118 a solid B+ value play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:23am