Suns vs Pelicans

Phoenix brings the stronger profile into this one, with Devin Booker leading a deeper, healthier core (Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams, Royce O’Neale) against a Pelicans team that’s hot but banged up, as Grayson Allen and Jalen Green sit for the Suns while New Orleans is without Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray and has Jordan Poole questionable, thinning their perimeter rotation around Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III. Recent form tilts subtly toward the dog—New Orleans has ripped off a five-game winning streak and four straight at home behind Zion’s resurgence—yet Phoenix is still 9-1 straight up as a favorite and the Pelicans are just 6-23 when listed as underdogs this season, suggesting the market may still be a shade low on the Suns’ baseline win probability. Booker’s long-term dominance in this matchup (over 30 points per game vs New Orleans over the last four years) and Zion’s big numbers against Phoenix (around 28-6-5 for his career, including February’s triple-double win) make this a star-driven game, but with the Pelicans’ backcourt so compromised and the Suns’ defense stabilizing, I project Phoenix to win this matchup comfortably enough to justify laying -162 on the moneyline, earning an A- grade for solid win probability with modest but real value at this price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:48

New Orleans has been playing its best basketball of the season during this five-game heater, but even with Zion driving efficient offense, these teams’ scoring profiles and current injury lists point slightly toward the Under on a very inflated 240, especially with Poole, Jones and Murray either out or limited on one side and key spacer Grayson Allen sidelined on the other. Phoenix and New Orleans combine to score roughly 230 points per game and allow about 237, and in their recent 10-game samples the average total has still sat a few points below this number, while the Suns in particular have been involved in more controlled, sub-240 environments than the line implies. Historical trends in this building do favor overs—Suns games in New Orleans have flown over in the vast majority of recent meetings—which, coupled with Zion’s big track record against Phoenix and Booker’s 30+ scoring history versus the Pels, injects enough shootout risk that I can’t go higher than a B grade, but with multiple rotation scorers missing and a number that bakes in an extreme pace and efficiency combination, I still lean to Under 240 at -110 as the more attractive side of the total. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:48

Devin Booker’s history of torching New Orleans and Phoenix’s strong record in the favorite role make Suns -4 the side I prefer, even against a Pelicans team that’s 5-0 in its last five and has been one of the league’s better ATS performers at home during this run. The Suns are covering at a healthy clip overall and have been particularly reliable when laying short numbers like this on the road, while New Orleans—though energized by Zion, Trey Murphy III and a surprisingly productive frontcourt—has to paper over the absences of Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray and manage a hobbled Jordan Poole, which hurts their ability to throw multiple plus defenders and on-ball creators at Booker and Dillon Brooks for 48 minutes. Zion’s enormous prior impact in this matchup (including February’s triple-double win in Phoenix) and the Pelicans’ current home-court momentum keep the door open for a tight finish, but when I balance the recent streaks, injuries, and matchup data against a modest -4 number, I project Phoenix to cover slightly more often than the price implies, making Suns -4 (-107) a B-grade play with decent upside if New Orleans’ depth finally shows some regression. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:48