Suns vs Pelicans

Devin Booker and the Suns bring the superior overall body of work into New Orleans, with a winning record against a Pelicans squad still buried near the bottom of the West despite a recent three-game surge, and Phoenix already hammered this opponent 121-98 in November behind Grayson Allen’s 42-point, 10-three eruption that exposed New Orleans’ shaky perimeter defense. With Jalen Green sidelined but Booker, Dillon Brooks and a deep frontcourt rotation intact, the Suns still project as the more stable scoring outfit, while the Pelicans lean heavily on Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III and are missing Dejounte Murray’s two-way guard play, which matters against Phoenix’s guard-heavy attack. Factoring in the Pelicans’ poor home record, their negative overall point differential, and Phoenix’s track record of handling this matchup, I’m willing to lay the juice on the Suns at -162 and grade this moneyline a B+ for a solid but not elite blend of win probability and modest return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 10:05

Zion Williamson’s Pelicans play fast and give up a ton of points, but a 240 total still sits a few ticks above what these teams typically combine for given Phoenix’s roughly league-average offensive pace, the Pelicans’ inefficient half-court execution, and past meetings that landed at 219, 233 and exactly 240 without overtime. With Jalen Green out and Dejounte Murray sidelined, both offenses lose a primary on-ball creator, which should flatten the tempo and limit downhill pressure, while defensive-minded pieces like Dillon Brooks, Royce O’Neale and Herbert Jones are all positioned for heavy minutes on the wings. New Orleans’ games have been wild lately, but Phoenix tends to drag opponents into more structured, mid-paced contests, and if the Suns can keep Zion and Trey Murphy off the free-throw line and the Pelicans below their usual transition volume, the Under 240 at -110 gets a B grade as a slightly better value than the number implies. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 10:05

Phoenix’s deeper rotation gives it a better chance to separate over 48 minutes than New Orleans, whose offense is heavily dependent on Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Jordan Poole and suffers when any of them sit, which shows up in the Pelicans’ ugly home record and double-digit negative point differential. The Suns, even with Jalen Green out, can stagger Devin Booker with Grayson Allen and multiple bigs, and their physical perimeter defenders have already shown they can disrupt this Pelicans group in that earlier 23-point blowout; by contrast, New Orleans is missing Dejounte Murray’s on-ball defense and late-game shot creation. Given Phoenix’s recent success in the matchup, its slight statistical edge on both sides of the ball, and the Pelicans’ tendency to fade late, I’m willing to lay the four points but keep this at a B- given road-variance risk and New Orleans’ current three-game win streak. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 10:05