Ohio State vs Michigan

With Ohio State unbeaten, owning the nation’s stingiest scoring defense at about a touchdown per game allowed, and finally fielding a calm, hyper-efficient quarterback in Julian Sayin against a true-freshman counterpart in Bryce Underwood, the Buckeyes are rightly heavy road favorites on the moneyline at -357. Michigan brings real resistance: a four-game rivalry win streak, a run game now driven by emergent star Jordan Marshall, and one of the country’s better defenses, but the Wolverines are down their original bell-cow back Justice Haynes for the season and could again be without or limited at linebacker Ernest Hausmann, softening both their offensive ceiling and their front-seven stability. In cold Big House conditions hovering around freezing with snow expected later in the afternoon, this profiles as a trench-heavy game where Ohio State’s top-ranked run defense and deeper defensive front (Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese, Kayden McDonald, Caden Curry) are better built to win first down, force Underwood into long-yardage spots, and eventually break Michigan’s protection. Michigan’s four straight wins in the series and home-field energy keep this from being a slam-dunk, but matchup-wise the Buckeyes’ balance, turnover advantage, and proven closing ability against top offenses make them more likely than the roughly 78% implied probability suggests, even if the price is steep; that combination of high win likelihood and modest but real edge on the true odds earns the Ohio State moneyline an A- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:00am

Both defenses and the forecast scream suppression more than shootout, so I lean Under 43.5 at -115 despite market respect for recent offensive surges. Ohio State is giving up under eight points per game and has held every opponent under 300 total yards, while Michigan is top-15 nationally in scoring defense and top-20 in total defense, with Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham anchoring a pass rush that can at least make Sayin earn his throws; pairing that with freezing temperatures around 32°F, a cloudy midday at the Big House and snow expected as the afternoon wears on is a clear drag on vertical passing and placekicking. Historically, this rivalry tilts on the ground, and Michigan’s last four wins over OSU have all leaned on dominating the rushing battle, a script they’ll try to repeat with Marshall and Bryson Kuzdzal to protect Underwood from obvious passing downs; that naturally shortens the game and limits total possessions, especially if Ohio State is content to lean on Bo Jackson and a methodical, low-mistake passing game. The main risk to the Under is explosive run plays on both sides plus defensive scores created by young-skill-position mistakes in bad footing, and Michigan’s offense has just shown its most balanced, efficient performance of the year, which is why this isn’t graded higher than a B, but in a rivalry that has recently produced 13-10 and other grinder scripts, the combination of elite defenses, run-first game plans, and winter weather still tilts slightly toward a total landing under 43.5. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:00am

Against the spread, laying -9.5 with Ohio State at -119 is aggressive in a rivalry they’ve dropped four straight, but the Buckeyes’ week-to-week profile suggests they’re more likely to win this one by double digits than by a field goal in another late Michigan steal. Ohio State has been one of the nation’s best ATS teams, repeatedly covering as a big favorite behind a defense that pairs top-ranked scoring and pass metrics with a front that lives in opposing backfields, and Sayin’s almost 80% completion rate with a 27-to-4 TD/INT line has turned their offense into a low-waste, high-floor machine even when premier targets like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have been dinged up. Michigan, by contrast, has been far shakier against the number, with inconsistency from a young offense led by Underwood and a defense now missing Haynes’ change-of-pace punch on offense and still monitoring Hausmann’s situation, forcing others to step up in space against one of the deepest receiving rooms they’ve seen; that’s a tough recipe if they fall behind. Add in a forecast that favors the stronger run defense and deeper defensive line — typically a Buckeye edge — and a playoff context where style points and a statement win help lock in seeding, and a projected score in the neighborhood of 27-13 or 24-13 makes OSU -9.5 a tick more attractive than the moneyline in terms of risk-reward, earning a B+ grade on the spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:00am