Oregon vs Texas Tech

Oregon rides a seven-game surge since its lone loss to Indiana into Miami, while Texas Tech hasn’t dropped a game since an early stumble at Arizona State and is fresh off a dominant Big 12 title win over BYU, setting up a true clash of in-form heavyweights. With transfer star Evan Stewart still out at receiver but Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr., and Jordon Davison all healthy again, the Ducks bring a more complete skill group to support Dante Moore’s hyper-efficient season at quarterback against an aggressive Red Raider defense. On the other side, Tech’s heart-and-soul linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is listed as probable and should be flying around the box, but Oregon’s balance — top-tier rushing output paired with a defense that has quietly become one of the stingiest in the country — slightly narrows the margin for error for Behren Morton and a Tech attack that has rarely seen this kind of two-way resistance. Add in Moore’s big-game reps from the first-round win over James Madison, plus Oregon’s experience in tight, high-leverage Big Ten battles, and the Ducks’ modest favorite price feels justified even in a neutral-site environment where Tech’s fan base will travel. Recommendation: back Oregon on the moneyline at -135, but only with a B-grade level of confidence given Texas Tech’s top-five profile on both sides of the ball. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:20

Both teams enter the Orange Bowl scorching: Oregon’s offense is piling up close to 470 yards per game with a top-two rushing attack, while Texas Tech averages over 480 yards and more than 40 points per game, and neither side has seen a defense quite like the other’s all season. Even with Stewart sidelined, Oregon’s full-speed trio of Davison, Noah Whittington, and a reloaded receiver room around Moore gives the Ducks multiple explosives on the ground and through the air, and Texas Tech’s backfield tandem led by Cameron Dickey plus Morton’s 60-plus percent completion rate make it difficult for even Oregon’s top-10 defense to completely clamp down. Historically, Tech edge rusher David Bailey has given Oregon problems in previous meetings, which likely forces the Ducks to lean into tempo and quick-game answers that still move the chains and keep drives alive rather than shortening the contest. With both offenses among the national leaders in plays of 20-plus yards and a CFP quarterfinal backdrop where neither staff can afford to sit on a narrow lead with a potential Peach Bowl semifinal looming, game script tilts toward an eventual shootout even if the opening quarter is cautious. That combination of sustained efficiency and explosive-play potential on both sidelines makes Over 50.5 at -115 a B+-grade play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:20

While Oregon is the pick to advance, the spread feels tight enough to lean toward Texas Tech catching +2.5, given how both teams’ current form and personnel stack up. The Ducks’ seven-game run, rejuvenated skill corps, and Moore’s high-end efficiency suggest they can find just enough answers against a Red Raider defense that has choked out Big 12 opponents, but Tech’s own balance — a top-three scoring offense, top-three scoring defense, and an elite run D keyed by Rodriguez and Bailey — is precisely the kind of profile that has historically forced Oregon into four-quarter, one-possession fights. Bailey’s familiarity with Oregon’s protections from earlier Pac-12 battles, plus Dickey’s power-run presence against a Ducks front that has been more bendable versus the ground game, raises the odds that Tech can trade blows, shorten a few Oregon possessions, and keep the margin razor thin. In a CFP quarterfinal where both know a semifinal shot at Indiana or Alabama is on the line and field goals are unlikely to be passed up, a 1–2 point Ducks win is a very live outcome, making the extra +2.5 at -105 with the home-designated Red Raiders a B-grade value even if Oregon ultimately survives. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:20