North Texas vs Tulane

With North Texas riding six straight wins and averaging nearly 47 points per game against a Tulane team that has quietly won four in a row but isn’t built to trade haymakers for four quarters, the matchup tilts toward the Mean Green on the moneyline at -145. Drew Mestemaker’s ultra-efficient season and Caleb Hawkins’ FBS-leading rushing touchdown total give North Texas multiple ways to move the ball, while Tulane’s pass defense has been the soft spot that explosive offenses have attacked all year and now has to deal with wet conditions that still favor the better-balanced attack. The Green Wave get a boost from a raucous home field and a front that’s been strong versus the run, but losing starting pieces like linebacker Shane Whitter on the North Texas side and a key defensive lineman for Tulane nudges this even more toward whichever offense can adapt best, and that’s been Morris’ unit all season, especially in the red zone and on the turnover margin. Add in that Tulane has owned the recent series but did so before this version of North Texas’ top-ranked offense emerged, and I’m comfortable grading North Texas -145 as an A- play: the price isn’t cheap, but the combination of current form, quarterback edge, and CFP motivation makes them the likelier side to simply win the game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:23am

The number is hanging at 66.5 for good reason with North Texas leading the nation in scoring and Tulane capable of exploiting the Mean Green’s run defense, but the context around this matchup nudges me to the Under at -115. Both teams enter on winning streaks built as much on improved defensive play as offense, with Tulane allowing 20 or fewer in four straight and North Texas’ secondary playing at a top-10 level even while the rush defense remains leaky, and now they get a rainy, mid-50s outdoor night that should slow down vertical shots and lengthen drives on the ground. The injury picture is more worrisome for defensive depth than for headlining skill players, yet losing a tackling machine like Whitter and key pieces up front for Tulane also encourages both staffs to lean on clock-sucking run games with Hawkins and Jake Retzlaff’s legs rather than turning this into a pure track meet. In a de facto CFP play-in game, coaches tend to take field goals, punt on marginal fourth downs, and play field position, all of which chip away at the path to the high 60s, so I’ll grade Under 66.5 as a B: there’s real shootout risk given North Texas’ ceiling, but the weather, championship game tendencies, and Tulane’s recent Under trend keep me slightly on the lower-scoring side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:23am

Against the spread, North Texas has been one of the country’s most profitable teams at 10-2, and laying just -2.5 at -122 is still attractive given how often their offense has turned games into multi-score wins, even against bowl-caliber opponents. The combination of Mestemaker’s precision, Hawkins’ late-season dominance on the ground, and Wyatt Young’s explosiveness on the outside is a difficult ask for a Tulane defense that’s stout versus the run but highly vulnerable through the air and prone to costly penalties, especially in the red zone, which plays right into the Mean Green’s elite scoring efficiency. Tulane’s 10-2 record, four-game win streak, and 6-0 home mark at Yulman plus a dual-threat quarterback in Retzlaff and a strong front seven absolutely keep this from being a slam dunk, but the forecasted rain and slick track actually help North Texas’ balanced attack more than a Tulane offense that has usually needed long, methodical drives to keep pace. With both sides dealing with defensive injuries in the front seven yet retaining their primary offensive weapons, I expect the higher-variance, turnover-positive Mean Green to create just enough separation to clear the key number of a field goal, so I’ll back North Texas -2.5 -122 as a B+ grade: slightly juiced but still offering worthwhile value given their season-long ATS profile and matchup advantages. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:23am