NCAAF

Tulsa vs Navy

Anchors aweigh or hurricane warning? We chart the waters.

Navy

NAVY (1-0) VS TLSA (0-0)

13 Sep 2025 | 7:00 PM ET | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD

Tulsa
Moneyline Pick - Navy (-625): Grade B

Navy enters Week 2 with momentum already in hand, fresh off a dominant rushing performance that reinforced its offensive identity. The triple-option attack matches up favorably against a Tulsa defense that struggled last season to contain ground-heavy opponents, and facing it in the opener adds another layer of difficulty for the Golden Hurricane. With the Midshipmen’s defense proving stout against the run down the stretch in 2024, Tulsa’s first-year starter faces an uphill battle in his road debut. Add in the energy of a home crowd for Navy’s opener, and the conditions tilt toward a disciplined, possession-driven game that limits volatility.

From a betting standpoint, the moneyline sits heavy, but it reflects Navy’s tangible advantages in scheme and execution. Tulsa’s defensive track record against option looks leaves little confidence in their ability to flip the matchup, while Navy’s ball-control style further reduces the chances of an upset. The prediction is straightforward: the Midshipmen are the pick, even if the price tag lowers the payout ceiling. This bet fits as a safe anchor in multi-leg strategies.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 13/09/2025 at 9:21am

Over/Under Pick - Under 51.5 (-110): Grade B+

Navy’s methodical style is built to shorten games, and the conditions in Annapolis further support a slower script. Their heavy ground approach not only chews clock but also limits the number of possessions, which showed in Week 1 when they turned a modest snap count into steady points. Tulsa enters with a new system still being installed, and pairing that with inexperience along the offensive line creates more challenges against a disciplined Midshipmen defense. With humidity also playing a role in tempo, the setup points toward a matchup where sustained drives are tough to finish and explosive plays remain limited.

From a betting lens, this number looks a touch high given both teams’ expected tendencies. Navy has a proven track record of holding down totals through ball control and defensive discipline, while Tulsa’s best chance to protect its quarterback is to lean on the run, which further accelerates the clock. The prediction favors a tighter, possession-limited contest, and the pick is the under. It may not be flashy, but this bet aligns well with the styles and situational factors in play.

This prediction gets a B+ grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 13/09/2025 at 9:23am

Spread Pick - Tulsa, +14.5 (-115): Grade B-

Navy’s ground-first approach has long been effective at controlling games, but it doesn’t always translate to covering large spreads. With their offense built around draining the clock and limiting possessions, the Midshipmen often leave room for underdogs to sneak inside the number. Tulsa, though still adjusting to new offensive leadership, brings back experienced defensive pieces familiar with the option, which should help contain explosive runs and force Navy to string together longer drives. In a matchup where each side may see only a handful of true scoring opportunities, even a single turnover or big play could tilt the margin.

From a betting standpoint, the question isn’t whether Navy is the safer prediction to win, but whether they can create enough separation to cover a double-digit spread. The pick leans toward Tulsa with the points, banking on their ability to capitalize on limited possessions and take advantage of Navy’s clock-heavy style. This is the type of bet where back-door potential looms large, making the underdog a reasonable value play.

This prediction gets a B- grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 13/09/2025 at 9:24am

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