NBA

Bucks vs Grizzlies

Injuries strip away star power, but open a door for the road dog.

Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks (11-18) VS Grizzlies (13-16)

December 26, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET | FedExForum, Memphis, TN

Memphis Grizzlies
Moneyline Pick - Milwaukee Bucks (+165): B-
Ryan Rollins and the Bucks enter Memphis on a modest one-game winning streak after finally snapping an eight-game road skid in Indiana, while the Grizzlies are also coming off a high-energy win fueled by Santi Aldama’s 37-point outburst in Utah that capped a 3–2 stretch over their last five. ([cbssports.games.cbssports.com](https://cbssports.games.cbssports.com/nba/gametracker/preview/NBA_20251226_MIL%40MEM/?utm_source=openai)) Milwaukee will again be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged 33.5 points against Memphis last season, and Taurean Prince, with Gary Trent Jr. questionable, whereas Memphis is missing Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Vince Williams Jr. and others, with Ja Morant’s ankle making him a game-time wild card. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/mil/milwaukee-bucks)) Even though the Grizzlies have won seven straight and eight of the last nine in this matchup behind big nights from Jaren Jackson Jr. and Aldama, Milwaukee’s emerging perimeter trio of Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr. and Bobby Portis gives them just enough shot creation to justify a small stab at the +165 moneyline in a game where both teams are heavily dependent on role players. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/basketball/grizzlies-beat-bucks-seventh-straight-time-2025-02-03/?utm_source=openai)) I’ll grade Bucks +165 as a B- play: the price is enticing for an upset, but the heavy injury variance on both sides keeps this in “sprinkle, not slam” territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:46
Over/Under Pick - Under 227, (-113): B
The Grizzlies’ offense has swung wildly from a 103-point, turnover-filled loss in Oklahoma City to a 137-point explosion against the Jazz behind Aldama’s shooting, but their season-long profile of bottom-tier field-goal percentage propped up by strong offensive rebounding hints at some cooling off here, especially if Morant’s sore ankle limits his rim pressure. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/basketball/thunder-brush-aside-grizzlies-maintain-perfect-home-mark--flm-2025-12-23/?utm_source=openai)) On the Bucks’ side, Giannis’ 28.9 points per game and his historically dominant numbers versus Memphis are off the table due to his calf injury, shifting more usage to secondary creators like Porter Jr. and Rollins on a team that has recently climbed to top-tier defensive efficiency while maintaining elite effective field-goal percentage. ([brewhoop.com](https://www.brewhoop.com/bucks-game-previews/56424/bucks-vs-grizlies-game-preview-discussion-start-time-tv-schedule-injury-report?utm_source=openai)) With both teams riding one-game winning streaks fueled more by effort and defensive scheme than by sustainable shot-making, and with long injury lists draining star power on both sides, I like Under 227 at -113 as a B-grade edge, expecting a competitive but choppier game flow that lands in the low-to-mid 220s rather than a clean shootout. ([oddscrowd.com](https://oddscrowd.com/games/milwaukee-bucks-vs-memphis-grizzlies-nba-december-27-2025/5494659/game-preview)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:46
Spread Pick - Milwaukee Bucks, +5 (-112): B+
Milwaukee’s +5 cushion is attractive when you factor in that both teams are on identical one-game heaters, yet Memphis is juggling a deeper list of absences than the Giannis-less Bucks, which often forces the Grizzlies into long stretches with unproven lineups that have struggled to separate on the scoreboard. ([fsr920.iheart.com](https://fsr920.iheart.com/content/2025-12-26-grizzlies-vs-bucks-time-tv-stream-dec-26/)) Memphis has indeed dominated this series recently—seven straight wins and eight of nine overall keyed by big perimeter shooting games from Jaren Jackson Jr. and Aldama—but those covers largely came against Bucks teams built around Giannis’ downhill usage rather than this more guard-driven, spread attack we’ve seen over the last eight games. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/basketball/grizzlies-beat-bucks-seventh-straight-time-2025-02-03/?utm_source=openai)) If Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. can approximate their recent production in the Pacers win and Myles Turner anchors the back line as a mobile rim protector, Milwaukee has enough shooting and defense to stay within one or two possessions even if Memphis ekes out another home victory, making Bucks +5 at -112 my preferred way to back the visitors with a B+ grade. ([cbssports.games.cbssports.com](https://cbssports.games.cbssports.com/nba/gametracker/preview/NBA_20251226_MIL%40MEM/?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:46
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