Michigan vs Texas Citrus Bowl 2025 Picks

Texas rolls into the Citrus Bowl having won six of its last seven, while Michigan has dropped two of its last three and is navigating coaching upheaval plus double‑digit opt-outs and injuries that strip away defensive anchors like Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham as well as key depth. With Arch Manning settled in after a strong close to the regular season and a proven connection to Ryan Wingo, the Longhorns’ continuity at quarterback and skill positions stands in contrast to Michigan leaning on freshman Bryce Underwood behind a reshuffled staff and offensive line. Add in Texas’ 2-0 all-time mark against Michigan, including last year’s 31-12 road demolition, and the Longhorns’ motivation to validate a CFP snub with a tenth win, and the straight-up edge tilts clearly toward the home-designation side even if the -300 price bakes in much of the value. I’m backing Texas on the moneyline, grading it an A- because the win probability is high but the juice limits bankroll upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:22

Both teams arrive with enough offensive firepower and defensive question marks to make a modest total of 48.5 feel reachable, especially with Arch Manning piloting a Texas passing attack that leans even harder on his arm now that its top running backs are out, and Michigan down its best edge rusher and a key linebacker from a front that previously carried the load. While Michigan’s offense has been inconsistent, Bryce Underwood’s downfield rapport with young targets like Andrew Marsh plus Jordan Marshall’s near-1,000-yard production suggest the Wolverines can at least trade scores if Texas’ secondary — missing multiple high-snap contributors — can’t hold up in man coverage for four quarters. Texas’ recent scoring profile against quality defenses and Michigan’s vulnerability in explosive-play prevention without its full pass-rush package point toward a script where Manning hits chunk gains, the Wolverines answer often enough to avoid a slog, and late possessions against softened rotations push this into the low-50s. I’ll play Over 48.5 at -105 with a B grade given the upside for a track meet but some risk that Michigan’s offense stalls if the freshman QB presses. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:22

Against the spread, laying the full touchdown with Texas hinges on trusting Manning’s efficiency and the Longhorns’ matchup history more than their injury-riddled defense, but Michigan’s roster turbulence and reliance on a true freshman quarterback tilt me toward the favorite. Texas has covered margins like this repeatedly down the stretch against top-10 competition, and although the Longhorns are missing their lead back and several front-seven and secondary starters, Michigan losing its premier pass rusher, a key linebacker, and a starting guard softens its two biggest edges — defensive pressure and trench stability — and increases the chance that sustained Texas drives eventually snowball into a two-score separation. With Texas already having beaten this program by 19 and 1 in the previous two meetings and owning better late-season form, a 31-20 or 30-21 type of result feels more likely than a one-score nail-biter, so I’m laying -7 with Texas and grading it a B: solid but not elite value because backdoor cover risk rises if the depleted Longhorns defense can’t close out the fourth quarter. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:22