Miami vs Ohio State

Ohio State on the moneyline is the chalky side, but with a defense allowing barely more than a touchdown per game, a 12-1 record built on 11 wins by at least 18 points, and the experience of a defending national champion, the Buckeyes are still the side that most closely aligns with how this CFP quarterfinal profiles. Miami rides a five-game winning streak and brings a top-tier scoring defense of its own, but its offense has leaned on Carson Beck, whose interception spikes in their two losses are a concern against an Ohio State secondary that’s been elite all year. Miami also comes in shorthanded at linebacker and in the secondary, while Ohio State’s biggest personnel hit is along the offensive line with Tegra Tshabola doubtful, mitigated by the fact that Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith (now back to full health), and the core skill group are intact. With both teams knowing a Fiesta Bowl semifinal berth is at stake, the gap in overall efficiency, depth, and playoff reps still points to the Buckeyes straight up, even if the -350 price keeps this in “B” value territory rather than a premium edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:25

The total sitting at 40.5 looks high relative to how these teams have actually been winning games, making the Under the preferred angle in what projects as a field-position war more than a shootout. Ohio State has been historically stingy, leading the nation in points allowed per game and drive efficiency metrics, while Miami comes in with a top-four scoring defense that just held Texas A&M to three points and has regularly smothered opposing passing games. Both offenses showed their conservative, grind-it-out side in their last outings — a 13-10 Buckeye loss to Indiana and a 10-3 Miami win at Texas A&M — and neither staff is likely to stray far from a risk-averse script with their playoff lives on the line. Add in Ohio State’s dinged-up right guard against a ferocious Miami front, Beck’s tendency to tighten up versus high-end defenses, and the fact that this is an indoor game that won’t be sped up or slowed down by weather, and a scoreline in the low 20s to teens appears more likely than something that threatens the 40s. Under 40.5 at -105 gets an A- grade for combining a strong defensive matchup with a number that still sits above the combined season-long points allowed of these units. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:25

Against the spread, laying -9.5 with Ohio State is more fragile than the moneyline but still worth a lean toward the Buckeyes given how their profile stacks up over four quarters. Eleven of their twelve wins have come by at least 18 points, driven by a defense that suffocates explosive plays and an offense that, outside of the Indiana slip, has consistently separated after halftime once Julian Sayin and the run game wear opponents down. Miami’s resume is built on a series of one-score grinders — tight wins over Notre Dame, Florida State, and Texas A&M — and while that toughness matters, it also hints at an offense that can stall if Beck is forced into longer third downs by an elite front and coverage unit. The Hurricanes’ injuries at linebacker and in the defensive backfield raise the degree of difficulty in containing Sayin-to-Smith and the deep receiver rotation for 60 minutes, yet Ohio State’s own concerns on the right side of the line and the low total keep open the possibility of a 7–10 point Buckeye win that doesn’t quite get there. With CFP stakes, a massive efficiency gap, and a track record of OSU turning close scripts into late blowouts, Ohio State -9.5 earns a B- as a modest edge rather than a hammer play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:25