Indiana vs Ohio State

Ohio State’s 16-game winning streak, 30 straight victories over Indiana and battle-tested resume in big neutral-site spots tilt the moneyline toward the Buckeyes at -204 despite Indiana’s own 12-0 surge and nation-best +33 scoring margin this season. With Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza both operating at Heisman level and relatively clean injury reports at the key offensive skill spots, this handicap comes down to Ohio State’s historically stingy defense (7.8 points allowed per game, only one opponent over 300 total yards) against an Indiana offense that has yet to see anything quite like this front, and to whether the Hoosiers’ banged-up front seven and offensive line depth can hold up for four quarters after losing pieces like Kellan Wyatt and Drew Evans over the last month. Indoors at Lucas Oil, the Buckeyes’ superior depth, recent dominance in this series and familiarity with championship-stage pressure make their moneyline the safer side, but the short price on undefeated Indiana at 156 keeps this from elite value, so I grade Buckeyes -204 as a B-level play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 11:07am

With Indiana averaging 44.3 points and 483.8 yards per game and Ohio State at 37.0 points and 438.5 yards, indoors on a fast Lucas Oil surface, the total of 47.5 feels a shade low even against two of the nation’s top two scoring defenses (a combined 18.7 points allowed per game). Both offenses are led by efficient, explosive quarterbacks in Mendoza (32 TD, 5 INT) and Sayin (30 TD, 5 INT), each supported by multi-dimensional playmakers like Roman Hemby and Elijah Sarratt for the Hoosiers and Bo Jackson and Jeremiah Smith for the Buckeyes, and this matchup doubles as a de facto Heisman showcase, which tends to keep the pedal down deeper into the game. While there is always risk that the defensive fronts take over and grind this into a lower-possession battle, the offensive efficiency, turnover margin strength (Indiana at +17) and high-leverage playoff seeding stakes point slightly more often to a game that edges into the low-50s, making Over 47.5 at -123 a modest value and earning a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 11:07am

Given Ohio State laying -4.5 at -109, I’m willing to trust the Buckeyes’ combination of championship experience, defensive ceiling and series history to cover a one-score number against an Indiana team that has been more dominant in aggregate but less proven against this level of front-seven speed. The Buckeyes are 9-2 against the spread this season versus 7-5 for Indiana, have won 29 straight in the matchup including last year’s 38-15 win, and bring the country’s most suffocating defense into a climate-controlled environment that should let their pass rush and secondary play to their athletic edge against Mendoza’s vertical shots to Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. over four quarters. Indiana’s injuries along the defensive line and interior offensive line slightly erode their trench advantage that fueled blowouts over Maryland and Purdue, and if Sayin’s timing with a now-healthy receiver room (Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and company) holds up, Ohio State is more likely to create the late separation needed to clear this number, so Buckeyes -4.5 earns a B+ grade on the spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 11:07am