Celtics vs Pacers

Boston’s three-game win streak and 8-2 stretch over their last 10, compared with Indiana’s six-game skid and 2-8 slide, make the Celtics the justified road side on this moneyline even with Jayson Tatum still out long term. With Tatum sidelined, Jaylen Brown has taken on primary scoring duties (around 29 points per game) and just dropped 31 in a 103-95 comeback win over these same Pacers on Dec. 22, while Anfernee Simons and Derrick White provide additional perimeter creation backed by a rotation solidified by Neemias Queta in the middle per the current ESPN roster. Indiana, meanwhile, is missing Tyrese Haliburton for the season and remains without several rotation pieces, leaving Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard to shoulder an offense that’s averaging roughly 109 points while giving up nearly 118 and repeatedly faltering in late-game execution, including blowing a 20-point lead and shooting ice-cold from deep in that recent loss in Boston. Given Boston’s superior form, healthier core relative to Indiana, and clear edge in two-way shot creation, I’m backing the Celtics on the moneyline at -355, a B+ grade pick thanks to strong win probability but a modest payout for the price.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401810281)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:42

Indiana’s shorthanded backcourt without Haliburton and multiple wings pushes me toward the Under 220, even though Boston can score, because the Pacers have slipped to just over 109 points per game and have been held under 100 in two of their last three contests. Boston’s defense has allowed about 110 points per game on the season and just held Indiana to 95 in that Dec. 22 meeting, and the Pacers’ last five games have produced totals of 205, 198, 237, 227 and 197, with four of those at or below 227 despite their shaky defense and recent losing streak. With the Celtics’ current Tatum-less rotation leaning more on half-court creation from Brown and Simons than the ultra-fast style of past seasons, and Indiana’s injury-riddled guard group struggling to consistently generate efficient looks against set defenses, the pace and shot quality both point slightly below this number, so I like Under 220 at -110 and grade it a solid B for a reasonable edge relative to the posted total.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401810281)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:42

Pascal Siakam once again profiles as Indiana’s main offensive engine, but Boston’s recent margins and the Pacers’ extended slump still nudge me toward laying the -8.5 with the Celtics at -105. Boston’s last three wins have come by 8, 13 and 16 points, and over the season they carry about a +6 scoring differential (116.0 scored vs. 110.0 allowed) behind a core of Brown, Simons, White and a deep frontcourt that has handled the absence of Tatum better than expected, while Indiana has lost six straight and three of their last five by double digits as their depleted guard rotation struggles to keep pace. The Pacers are only 5-11 at home, and with Haliburton, Obi Toppin and several role players still out, they remain vulnerable to Boston’s physical defense and late-game execution that just turned a 20-point deficit into an eight-point win in the previous head-to-head, which is right on this spread range. I’ll lay the points with Boston -8.5, but because of the inherent risk of a backdoor cover from a desperate home underdog and the fact that we’re paying for the Celtics’ recent surge, I’m grading this a C+ pick with moderate confidence and only decent value compared with the moneyline.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401810281)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 09:42