Alabama vs Oklahoma

Oklahoma rides a four-game winning streak into this CFP opener while Alabama is just 1-2 over its last three, including the earlier 23-21 Sooners win in Tuscaloosa and a 28-7 setback to Georgia, and that recent form matters when you’re splitting hairs in a near pick’em. The Sooners’ defense has been elite all season, ranking top-10 nationally in total and scoring defense and leading the country in sacks and tackles for loss, a nasty profile against an Alabama offense that has struggled to run the ball (worst rushing output among CFP teams) and has seen Ty Simpson throw nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns down the stretch. Key availability notes tilt slightly toward Oklahoma as well: Alabama is missing impact pass rusher LT Overton and multiple defensive contributors, while Oklahoma’s main concern is a banged-up John Mateer and a likely-absent starting center Jake Maikkula, issues that are real but somewhat mitigated by Mateer’s efficient management in the first meeting and the Sooners’ defensive leverage at home. Historically, Oklahoma has also had Alabama’s number, winning five of the last six in the series, including a 24-3 home blowout last season and this year’s turnover-fueled upset in Bryant-Denny, and now the winner advances to face Indiana in the Rose Bowl with all the pressure squarely on a wobbly Tide offense on the road. With Oklahoma laying only a small price at -115 and owning both the better current trajectory and the more disruptive defense, I’m willing to back the Sooners on the moneyline, but the narrow talent gap and Alabama’s playoff pedigree keep this at a B rather than an A-grade edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:20

With both teams leaning on top-tier defenses and inconsistent, injured offenses, this rematch sets up as another grind that lands Under the modest 40.5 total more often than not. Oklahoma averages just 26.4 points per game overall and only 21.5 against SEC competition, and Alabama’s offense has sputtered badly against quality fronts, producing only seven points versus Georgia while ranking outside the national elite in yards and struggling to establish any consistent rushing threat. On the other side, Oklahoma’s defense is allowing just 13.9 points per game with dominant havoc numbers in sacks and tackles for loss, while Alabama’s unit sits in the top 15 nationally in scoring defense, and the last two meetings between these teams finished 24-3 and 23-21, an average of 35.5 points and 0-2 to the Over. Add in that Oklahoma’s starting quarterback John Mateer is managing a thumb issue and their center Jake Maikkula is trending out, while Alabama’s backfield has been banged up and its best edge rusher LT Overton remains sidelined, and the likeliest script is a conservative, field-position battle where both offenses try to avoid the catastrophic turnover that swung the November game. In a CFP first round spot with a trip to face Indiana on the line and two coaches comfortable winning ugly, I slightly prefer the Under 40.5 at -110 and grade it a B+, with the low number itself being the main reason this doesn’t reach A territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:20

Against the spread, I’ll still lean toward Oklahoma -1.5 at -105, but the razor-thin margin and low total make this only a B- recommendation rather than a stronger position. The Sooners’ four-game win streak and two straight victories over Alabama — including last month’s 23-21 road win when they were outgained but won the turnover and situational battle — suggest Brent Venables’ defense has a reliable blueprint for disrupting Ty Simpson and a Tide attack that has been far too one-dimensional. Oklahoma’s front leads the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, and with Alabama’s offensive line having already surrendered game-changing pressure in the first meeting and its ground game ranking last among CFP teams, a loud Norman crowd under the lights is a real edge over 60 minutes, especially now that pass rusher R Mason Thomas is back while Alabama remains without LT Overton and several depth pieces. The concern, and why this isn’t graded higher, is that Oklahoma’s own offense is far from explosive — Mateer’s thumb and Maikkula’s likely absence at center raise the volatility — and a total sitting around 40.5 means every half-point on the spread is magnified, making one busted coverage or special-teams play potentially decisive for bettors. Still, with Oklahoma’s defensive ceiling, recent form, and home field nudging them slightly ahead in what profiles as another one-score game, I’m willing to lay the short -1.5 at the cheaper -105 price, but only with a modest B- confidence rating. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:20