Alabama vs Indiana

Alabama’s late-season surge and Simpson’s 3,500-yard, 28-touchdown campaign are real threats, but backing undefeated Indiana on the moneyline leans into the Hoosiers’ season-long consistency: they own one of the nation’s top scoring margins, a dominant third-down profile on both sides of the ball, and the most stable quarterback in this playoff, with Mendoza fresh off a Heisman run and a Big Ten title in which Indiana allowed just 10.8 points per game. Indiana is banged up up front defensively with edge disruptor Stephen Daley and fellow lineman Kellen Wyatt out, yet their front still generates pressure and should face an Alabama offense that has struggled to run the ball and has been leaky in protection, including negative rushing totals in multiple big spots. Layer in a damp, cool afternoon that could make the turf soft and favor Indiana’s balanced, on-schedule offense over Alabama’s more pass-heavy approach, and the Hoosiers’ implied win probability near 70 percent feels about right, but not cheap enough to upgrade past a B given the inherent variance of a CFP quarterfinal and Alabama’s historic success against No. 1 teams. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:22

With two top-tier defenses, a weather-impacted surface, and playoff tempo, the Under 48.5 stands out slightly more than the side: Indiana has allowed just 141 points all season (10.8 per game) and pairs that with an offense comfortable playing methodical, clock-draining football behind Mendoza and Roman Hemby rather than chasing tempo, while Alabama’s offense has repeatedly bogged down on third down against elite fronts and just scored 7 in the SEC title game before grinding past Oklahoma. Forecast models and even DFS writeups are flagging lingering showers and a potentially slick Rose Bowl turf this afternoon, conditions that tend to mute explosives, encourage conservative fourth-down and red-zone decisions, and especially tax kickers and perimeter timing routes. Given Indiana’s ability to stay ahead of the chains and Alabama’s inconsistency running the ball, the script points toward longer drives, more field goals than touchdowns, and a final score profile closer to the Big Ten title slog than a track meet, making the Under a B+ play on the combination of matchup and environment at this number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:22

Against the spread, I’m willing to grab the full touchdown with Alabama at +7, even while favoring Indiana outright, because the underlying numbers and game state both hint at a one-score grind: ESPN’s FPI and market power ratings give Indiana roughly a 6-point edge on a neutral, and now the Hoosiers must cover seven while missing their most disruptive front-seven piece in Daley and another key lineman, thinning a pass rush that was central to their dominance. Simpson has already shown he can keep Alabama live as a dog with vertical shots to Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams, and the Tide’s track record in big stages against top-ranked opponents plus their recent comeback at Oklahoma suggest they’re comfortable playing from behind and manufacturing backdoor opportunities. In cool, damp Rose Bowl conditions that should slow the game and slightly compress scoring variance, a 27-23 or 24-20 type outcome feels very live, so the hook-free +7 at essentially even money earns a B as a value-side complement to an Indiana moneyline lean and an Under position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:22