Alabama vs Auburn

Alabama on the moneyline at -233 is the straightforward side: the Tide have won five straight Iron Bowls, have taken nine of their last ten overall, and bring a clear efficiency edge on both sides of the ball, with Ty Simpson operating as one of the nation’s most efficient passers against an Auburn team that has leaned on a stingy front but still ranks near the bottom of the SEC in scoring offense. Auburn’s profile is that of a tough, bowl-hungry home underdog with a strong run defense and a dangerous receiving duo in Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr., yet their recent 6-loss-in-8 stretch and inconsistency at quarterback (between Jackson Arnold, Ashton Daniels, and Deuce Knight) make it hard to trust them to finish drives against a defense allowing barely over two touchdowns per game. Alabama is banged up at running back (Kevin Riley) and tight end (Josh Cuevas), and Auburn has front-seven and secondary injuries of its own, but the Tide’s passing ceiling, better turnover margin, and much higher leverage in the playoff race make their outright win probability comfortably above the implied mark even in a hostile Jordan-Hare environment, though the juice knocks this down from an A+ to an A- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:20am

The Under 46.5 at -119 leans into the identity both teams have settled into by late November: Alabama’s defense is allowing barely over 16 points per game while Auburn is giving up around 20 with a top-10 national run defense, and both have been frequent Under teams this season, especially in November, even as the Tide offense has opened up through the air with Simpson’s high yards-per-attempt and low interception rate. Auburn’s attack has ticked up some behind its recent quarterback shuffle and a ground game paced by Jeremiah Cobb, but in SEC play this offense has slogged through long stretches of sub-20-point production, and Durkin’s game plans at home have clearly prioritized shortening games, trusting his defense, and forcing opponents to drive the field. With Alabama’s backfield depth compromised by injuries and Auburn’s offensive line and linebacker group also nicked up, this sets up for the Tide to lean on their passing game in measured fashion, Auburn to try to bleed clock on the ground, and both defenses to stiffen in the red zone, pointing toward a scoreline in the low 40s more often than not; the juice keeps this to a B+, but the matchup and trend profile still favor the Under. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:20am

Laying the -5.5 with Alabama at -118 gets more delicate than the moneyline because Jordan-Hare has historically compressed margins (the last three in Auburn decided by three or fewer), but the combination of the Tide’s passing efficiency, Auburn’s uneven quarterback play, and the Tigers’ injuries at linebacker and along the offensive line nudges this toward a one-score Alabama cover more often than not. Simpson has turned Alabama into a pass-first offense that can stress Auburn where its otherwise elite run defense is more vulnerable—on the back end versus multiple receivers led by Ryan Williams and a healthy Germie Bernard—while the Tigers’ offense still relies heavily on Cobb and the ground game to stay ahead of the chains, a tough ask against a front that has held opponents under 135 rushing yards per game. Auburn’s desperation for bowl eligibility and the rivalry volatility, plus Alabama’s missing starting tight end and lead back, keep this from grading higher than a B, but when you layer in Alabama’s strong ATS form this season versus Auburn’s losing record and weaker ATS track over the last ten, a projected differential in the 7–10 point range (something like 27–17 Tide) justifies laying the short number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:20am