NHL

Jets vs Stars

“High-altitude confidence collides with Lone Star home-ice pressure.”

Winnipeg Jets

Jets (56-22-4) VS Stars (50-26-6)

May 11, 2025 | 3:30 PM ET | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Dallas Stars
Moneyline Pick - Winnipeg Jets (+126): B

In this pivotal playoff matchup, Winnipeg enters with superior momentum and a red-hot goaltender anchoring its back end. The visiting side has found consistent scoring from its top unit, which has repeatedly capitalized in recent head-to-heads. Dallas, meanwhile, faces key absences in its lineup, and its special teams—particularly the penalty kill—have struggled to maintain postseason form. Even at home, the host team will be tested by a well-structured Winnipeg squad chasing higher postseason accolades and playing with clear urgency.

From a betting angle, the plus-money offering on the road side reflects value rooted in current form, matchup history, and health. Dallas has depth, yes, but without key contributors, their ceiling dips slightly. The lean stays with Winnipeg here—not a lock, but certainly strong enough for a “B” grade on the road upset potential.

Over/Under Pick - Over 5.5, (-110): B

Both teams enter this playoff clash with clear offensive upside and notable defensive concerns. Winnipeg is riding strong momentum with consistent top-line production, while Dallas looks to rebound from a rough stretch, banking on its leading scorers to set the pace. With defensive depth thinned on both sides due to lingering injuries, and each goalie coming off heavy workloads, the conditions lean toward a more open, back-and-forth contest than a grind-it-out defensive battle.

Historically, this matchup trends toward the higher side of the scoring column, and with playoff intensity intersecting with the chase for home-ice leverage, neither team is likely to park the bus. The total of 5.5 looks beatable, and the odds are reasonable enough to justify a confident Over lean—earning a solid “B” grade for its balance of risk and potential return.

Puckline Pick - Winnipeg Jets, -1.5 (-215): A-

Winnipeg enters this key playoff tilt with momentum on its side, boasting strong goaltending and a top line firing on all cylinders. Their recent stretch has seen dominant two-way play, while the visiting team is managing lineup limitations and less-than-stellar special teams form. Even with offensive threats that can’t be overlooked, the visitors have struggled to cover tight margins on the road, especially against a team as balanced and playoff-focused as the Jets.

Given Winnipeg’s edge in health, depth, and recent home form, this one shapes up as a spot where the puckline is worth the risk. With power-play efficiency rising and defensive lapses plaguing the other side, a multi-goal win feels more likely than a squeaker. The odds reflect the confidence, and the play earns an A– grade for blending high probability with reasonable value in a high-stakes setting.

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