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Pick: Troy Moneyline (-440) - B
Troy enters this matchup brimming with momentum, having won four straight games, while Southern Miss has dropped three of their last four. One major concern for the Golden Eagles is the absence of key forward Victor Hart, whose absence weakens their frontcourt against a Troy team that thrives on crashing the boards. Additionally, Troy guard Tayton Conerway has a history of lighting up Southern Miss, averaging 17.5 points per game in their last three meetings. With both teams having surpassed the 41-game mark, Troy remains firmly in the Sun Belt tournament picture, whereas Southern Miss faces an uphill battle. While the -440 moneyline presents limited value, Troy’s strong form and Southern Miss’s injury concerns make this pick a solid, albeit conservative, play.
Pick: Under 144.5 - B+
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Troy enters this matchup with strong defensive performances, coming off a three-game winning streak where they’ve held opponents under 65 points in each contest. Meanwhile, Southern Miss has struggled offensively during their current two-game skid, failing to crack 70 points in either loss. Injuries could also play a role, as Troy’s starting guard—one of their top perimeter shooters—is questionable with an ankle sprain, which could weaken their outside shooting. Additionally, Southern Miss’ leading scorer has historically struggled against Troy’s frontcourt defense, averaging just 10 points per game in their last three meetings. With both teams battling inconsistency and Troy dictating a slower tempo on the road, this game projects as a grind-it-out battle, making the under a strong bet at 144.5.
Pick: Troy -9 (-110) - B
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Troy enters this matchup riding a four-game winning streak, while Southern Miss has stumbled with three consecutive losses, highlighting the clear trajectory for both teams. Adding to the Golden Eagles' struggles, forward Victor Hart remains sidelined, thinning their interior presence against a disciplined Troy squad. Historically, Troy has dominated the head-to-head matchup, covering the spread in four of their last five meetings. The Trojans' well-balanced offense should exploit Southern Miss' defensive inefficiencies, especially with their sharp perimeter shooting. While the spread is a sizable -9, Troy's current form and Southern Miss' injury woes make them the more reliable pick. With a firm grip on momentum, expect the Trojans to control the pace and comfortably cover. Given the odds and matchup dynamics, this pick earns a solid B grade.
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