Blue Jays vs Astros

Despite arriving on a four-game skid, Toronto sends out a dependable arm, whose strong track record in Houston provides much-needed stability. Houston counters with a righty already finding a decent groove this April, and their recent mini-surge hasn’t erased ongoing bullpen concerns, especially with Ryan Pressly unavailable. Toronto, meanwhile, has their closer back and a lineup that’s shown more pop on the road, highlighted by favorable splits against tonight’s starter.

With both teams priced evenly, the Jays’ pitching edge and healthier bullpen tilt the scales slightly in their favor. You’re not getting underdog odds, but you are getting a more complete team on the road in a winnable spot. Grade: B—solid lean with subtle advantages worth backing.

Toronto heads into Houston trying to snap a four-game slide, while the Astros look to extend their two-game run despite still missing a key bat. Both clubs enter this matchup with rotation questions—neither starter has been dominant this season—and a few bullpen concerns that could magnify as the game progresses. The top of each lineup has a history of success in this ballpark, and with early-season urgency setting in, neither dugout will hesitate to lean on offense over matchups. With both pitchers having shaky splits in this spot, the stage is set for a slugfest under the dome.

This one shapes up as a solid Over play, especially if either starter falters early. It’s not just about the arms—it’s about the bats that know how to hit them. Grade: B—trendy scoring matchup with enough lineup firepower to justify the lean.

Houston hosts a reeling Blue Jays squad that’s dropped four straight and comes in with a bullpen showing signs of wear. The Astros are missing one key bat, but the rest of the order has stepped up, particularly with a few hitters thriving in this matchup. On the mound, Toronto counters with a starter who’s pitched well in Houston before, but that advantage is blunted by a tough opposing arm and recent health-related limitations. Houston’s rested high-leverage trio out of the bullpen adds a late-game edge in a matchup where both sides will likely need every out.

Even with modest payout potential, the Astros getting a run at home feels like the sharper angle. They’ve got the arms lined up, some lineup momentum, and face a team still working through roster fatigue. Grade: B—reliable cover probability with solid late-game protection.