MLB

Tampa Bay vs Boston

Fenway’s familiar foes meet; one club’s streak fuels our lean

Tampa Bay Rays

Rays (50-44) VS Red Sox (50-45)

July 12, 2025 | 4:10 PM ET | Fenway Park, Boston MA

Boston Red Sox
Moneyline Pick - Boston Red Sox (-190): B

Boston enters this matchup in solid form, backed by a strong recent stretch on the mound and a bullpen that’s had time to recover. With their offense gaining key reinforcements and the home crowd behind them, the Red Sox are well-positioned against a Tampa Bay club that’s struggled to find consistency on the road and is navigating a cautious approach with its rotation. Momentum and roster depth both tilt in Boston’s favor.

Tampa Bay’s offense remains capable but has cooled of late, and their pitching staff isn’t quite set up for a shutdown outing, especially if they have to go to the bullpen early. The Red Sox, still in thick of the Wild Card race, should play with urgency, and that edge shows across both sides of the ball. The line might not be cheap, but the situation supports the price.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made 12/07/2025 at 10:10am

Over/Under Pick - Over 8, (-110): B

Boston’s recent upswing at the plate and Tampa Bay’s weary bullpen suggest that run prevention could be tough to come by Saturday afternoon at Fenway. The Red Sox enter having strung together four straight wins, with their bats finding rhythm and the lineup largely intact. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has stumbled in from back-to-back extra-inning games and hands the ball to a starter who hasn’t fared well in this park, adding strain to an already thin relief unit. That imbalance sets up well for offense, especially with both teams inside the top ten in hard-hit rate at the break.

Even with a few lineup pieces still sidelined, these two clubs have the bats—and context—to push scoring past the posted number. With Boston still eyeing Wild Card positioning and Tampa Bay trying to reverse course, each side should be aggressive at the plate rather than manufacturing runs. Toss in warm conditions and a stretched bullpen on both sides, and the Over holds clear appeal.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 12/07/2025 at 10:11am

Spread Pick - Tampa Bay Rays, +1.5 (-135): B

Tampa Bay heads into Fenway with momentum on its side after four straight wins, while Boston looks to steady itself following a recent dip that’s coincided with lingering lineup absences. The Rays have shown they can handle the environment, and their recent bullpen consistency helps protect slim leads or tight deficits—something especially important given both clubs are locked in a Wild Card traffic jam with every game gaining weight past the halfway mark.

Boston’s starter has struggled at times with command, and Tampa’s lineup has taken advantage in the past. With both teams likely to manage innings closely and lean on the back end of the bullpen, keeping the game within a run feels well within reach. The plus-run cushion acts as affordable protection in a matchup that projects to be competitive from the first pitch to the last.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 12/07/2025 at 10:12am

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