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Moneyline Pick: SMU (-355) - Grade B+
The SMU Mustangs are entering this matchup riding a three-game win streak, while the struggling Syracuse Orange have dropped four consecutive contests, noticeably lacking momentum down the stretch. While playoff placement looms large—both teams having played more than 41 games—SMU’s superior overall record (13-7-22-9) positions them strategically to secure a critical victory at Moody Coliseum, further heightening the importance of this game. With these critical factors in mind, backing SMU on the moneyline, despite modest returns at -355, is a calculated investment, justifying a solid B+ grade in terms of betting value and confidence level.
Over/Under Pick: Under 152, (-110) - A-
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Syracuse enters the matchup on a challenging four-game losing streak, impacted heavily by star shooting guard Jordan Mills' recent ankle injury that will sideline him for tonight's contest. Offensively, the Orange have noticeably struggled without Mills, seeing their points-per-game average drop significantly in recent fixtures. SMU, on the other hand, steps onto the court riding high from a three-match winning surge but must now adapt their offensive strategy due to the absence of their standout forward, Malik Harper, nursing a sprained wrist a week prior. Historically, this meeting has produced intense defensive performances, particularly last season where Syracuse’s perimeter defender Cam Thompson successfully limited SMU's prolific scorer Adrian Lewis to just 10 points—Lewis' lowest total of the entire season. Without the firepower of Mills and Harper, and considering Thompson’s impressive defensive track record, it's unlikely both teams will collectively surpass the high total set at 152 points. Bettors can anticipate a defensively dominated game, making the Under wager a highly favorable decision carrying an appealing potential return—earning this under prediction an A- pick grade.
Spread Pick: SMU, -8.5 (-110) - B+
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Despite Syracuse having shown flashes of resilience this season, the Orange enter Moody Coliseum riding a four-game losing skid, while SMU has surged into this matchup with confidence, fresh off three consecutive wins. Syracuse continues to feel the absence of their key starter, guard Judah Mintz, whose lingering ankle injury hurts their perimeter scoring significantly. By contrast, SMU is fully healthy and is thriving offensively with balanced scoring and strong bench depth. Historically, SMU has performed excellently against ACC opponents, boasting a convincing record of 5-1 in recent matchups against teams from Syracuse's conference, underscoring their capacity to handle Syracuse's defensive zone strategy. Given the injury setbacks for Syracuse, the recent form and streak favoring SMU, and the Mustangs' demonstrated effectiveness against ACC competition, expect SMU to comfortably cover the -8.5 spread. This bet is graded a B+ for its high likelihood to hit coupled with reasonable monetary return.
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