Spartans vs Aggies
Aggies Look to Dominate, but Can They Cover
San José State @ Utah State
February 19 | 9:30pm ET | Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
Grade A-: Utah State Moneyline
Utah State has been a force in the Mountain West, boasting one of the most efficient offenses in the conference while maintaining a top-tier defense. The Spartans, on the other hand, have struggled against high-pressure teams, often failing to generate consistent scoring against elite defensive units. San José State's rebounding issues will also be a major concern against an Aggies team that dominates the glass and limits second-chance opportunities. With Utah State heavily favored at -1700, they are the clear choice on the moneyline, though the value is minimal. This is an A- grade pick, as Utah State’s superior talent and home-court dominance make an upset highly unlikely.
Grade B+: Utah State -16.5
The Aggies have been one of the most dominant teams in the Mountain West, using their size and defensive pressure to control the tempo against weaker opponents. San José State has struggled on the road, particularly against top-tier competition, and their offensive inconsistency could be a major issue against Utah State’s elite defense. Additionally, the Aggies’ rebounding advantage and ability to generate second-chance points could quickly put the Spartans in a deep hole. With Utah State favored by -16.5, the question isn’t whether they’ll win, but whether they can cover the large spread. Given their defensive dominance and San José State’s struggles in hostile environments, this is a B+ pick for Utah State to cover.
Grade B+: Under 149.5 Points
The Aggies have built their success on strong defensive play, holding opponents well below their season averages, especially at home. San José State has been inconsistent offensively, particularly against physical defenses, and will likely struggle to generate efficient scoring against Utah State’s disciplined half-court pressure. While the Aggies have an efficient offense, they play at a moderate pace, preferring to control the tempo rather than engage in shootouts. With the total set at 149.5, the combination of Utah State’s defensive intensity and San José State’s scoring struggles makes the under the better play. This is a B+ pick, as Utah State’s ability to dictate the pace favors a lower-scoring affair.
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