MLB

Pirates vs Reds

Reds look to right the ship at home behind Abbott

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates (5-8) VS Reds (5-8)

April 11, 2025 | 6:40 PM ET | Great American Ball Park

Cincinnati Reds
Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-160) - Grade: B-
Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott will get the nod tonight, and Cincinnati is hoping he can stop their one-game skid and build some momentum at home against the division rival Buccos. The Pirates did snap a four-game losing streak yesterday, but with Ke'Bryan Hayes day-to-day due to lower back tightness and Henry Davis struggling at the plate, it's unclear if their offensive breakout can continue. Meanwhile, the Big Red Machine is looking to bounce back quickly, and Elly De La Cruz (.308 AVG, 4 HR) has crushed Pittsburgh pitching historically, including over a .350 average in matchups against them last year. The Bucs' starter, Bailey Falter, has been tagged for 4+ ER in two of his three outings this season and owns a 5.12 ERA against Cincy in his career. While both teams are evenly matched at 5-8 and sit in early-season limbo, the Reds' depth, home field, and slightly healthier lineup give them the advantage here. This is a moderate-value pick given the -160 odds and earns a B- grade due to some volatility in both teams' early season performances and inconsistency on the mound. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/04/2025 06:44
Over/Under Pick: Under 8.5, (-110) - Grade: C+
The Reds may be limping into tonight’s divisional clash on a one-game skid, but don’t expect the Bucs to pile on the punishment offensively. Despite their modest win over St. Louis, Pittsburgh’s bats have been among the coldest in the league, averaging just 3.7 runs per game, and they'll once again be without injured outfielder Bryan Reynolds, a key run producer. Meanwhile, the Redlegs are working through lineup inconsistencies of their own, especially with Elly De La Cruz providing pop but struggling against Pirates’ righty Mitch Keller, who owns a 2.88 ERA in four lifetime starts at Great American Ball Park. On the mound, the Reds counter with Nick Lodolo—returning from an extended IL stint—and although his form could be rusty, Pirates hitters haven't shown the kind of consistency to punish him. Neither team appears postseason-bound at 5-8 a piece, lowering the pressure and raising the chances of a low-scoring, early-season slog that stays under the 8.5 mark. Still, the unpredictability of Lodolo’s return and shaky middle relievers on both clubs keep this at a cautious C+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/04/2025 06:45
Spread Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates, +1.5 (+160) - Grade: B
Overcoming a short losing streak, the Bucs showed signs of life in their last outing and appear poised to build off that momentum as they visit the Queen City. The Reds are reeling slightly with a one-game skid and are dealing with an untimely offensive slump—particularly Jonathan India, who’s hitting just .211 through 13 games and has historically struggled against Pittsburgh arms, especially Mitch Keller. The Pirates will counter with Keller on the bump, who’s coming off a quality start and owns a respectable 3.48 ERA in his career against Cincy. The Redlegs, meanwhile, send Andrew Abbott to the mound, but with the bullpen taxed and TJ Friedl still sidelined due to a wrist fracture, there’s added pressure on their shallow batting order. The Pirates’ top bats like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have begun to heat up, and with both teams sitting at 5-8, the pressure is equally urgent—but Pittsburgh has slightly more wind in their sails. This is far from a lock, given how close these teams have played lately, but grabbing the run and a half with the Buccos while catching it at +160 offers balanced value for an underdog bet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/04/2025 06:45
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