Pirates vs Cubs

Chicago enters with a decisive edge in both recent form and matchup history, backed by their ace’s sustained success against Pittsburgh. Even with a key infielder sidelined, the Cubs’ home scoring average remains strong, and they face a Pirates lineup that has struggled to generate runs away from home while missing one of its top arms. Chicago’s bullpen has been reliable since the break, giving them the tools to secure and protect a lead in a playoff-driven environment.

From a betting perspective, this prediction backs Chicago on the moneyline, trusting their rotation stability, offensive edge, and late-inning depth to convert the favorite’s price into a win. The pick leans on historical pitching dominance, current team momentum, and roster health advantages to justify the chalk. For bettors, it’s a calculated play built on both statistical trends and situational leverage.

This prediction gets a B- grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 15/08/25 at 9:00am

With Pittsburgh’s offense producing at a near two-week low and only Reynolds offering consistent pop, run creation looks limited—especially against Steele’s ability to generate soft contact in conditions that suppress flight. Keller’s recent efficiency and both clubs’ strong bullpen metrics further support a run-suppressed outcome, while Chicago’s historical trend of staying under as a heavy favorite reinforces the lean.

This forecast favors the under on the total, banking on neutralized power, above-average late relief work, and situational trends that align with a low-scoring profile. I’d grade this pick a B, given the wind’s helpful influence but acknowledging Wrigley can flip scripts quickly if command slips. Odds and availability are subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 15/08/2025 at 9:02am

Given the Pirates’ recent success covering against Chicago when Keller starts, plus the history of tight one-run results in this matchup, the +1.5 run line holds merit—especially in a game projected to be low-scoring. The Cubs’ bullpen still missing Alzolay adds late-inning volatility, while Pittsburgh’s recent improvement at stranding runners strengthens their ability to keep things close.

I’d grade this play a C+, as the data points toward another narrow outcome, making the insurance run more valuable than chasing the heavier favorite spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and TikTok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 15/08/2025 at 9:04am