Phillies vs Pirates

Philadelphia enters this matchup riding a shockingly poor run of form, losing seven of their last ten, while Pittsburgh continues to tread water, playing .500 ball in their last ten games, and are dealing with bullpen health issues. On the mound, Philadelphia sends a veteran with a strong history of success at PNC Park, while Pittsburgh counters with a talented rookie still working under pitch count limits that have often exposed a shaky bullpen carrying an ERA near five. Even with some lineup pieces still working through minor injuries, Philadelphia’s offensive depth and top-three run differential give them a clear edge. While the odds have tightened, the combination of current form, roster health, and matchup advantages makes backing Philadelphia a solid play with a B grade.

Honestly, this one lines up pretty cleanly. Philadelphia is clicking right now, Pittsburgh can’t seem to catch a break, and that bullpen remains a real problem when the rookie starter exits early. The price isn’t incredible, but the edge still leans heavily toward Philly.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/06/2025 09:42

Philadelphia brings a three-game losing streak into Pittsburgh behind a starter who’s been excellent all season, while Pittsburgh looks to find some sort of positive momentum. The pitching matchup features two arms with strong histories in this spot, as Pittsburgh’s starter has consistently handled Philadelphia’s lineup well. Both offenses enter with some injury concerns, which could further limit scoring opportunities. The bullpens for both teams have performed at a high level lately, ranking among the league’s best in win probability added since late May. Combine that with typical June conditions at PNC Park that tend to suppress offense, and the total of eight appears a bit high. This setup earns an A- grade for confidence, backed by strong pitching trends and even-money value on a low-scoring game.

Honestly, this feels like one of those tight, grind-it-out matchups. Both starters can handle these lineups, the pens have been sharp, and PNC always plays a little bigger this time of year. Getting even money on the under feels like a pretty strong spot to me.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/06/2025 09:42

Pittsburgh enters this in-state matchup with steadier bullpen health, which could prove crucial against a Philadelphia squad still missing key pieces in both its lineup and late-inning relief. The Phillies have been edging out tight wins recently but are also in the middle of a taxing road stretch. Pittsburgh’s starter has had a mixed bag of results against the Phillies in the past so the Pirates may need to rely on their bullpen, but their offense has shown just enough to stay competitive against strong opposing arms. With a solid track record covering tight spreads at home and Philadelphia battling roster fatigue, taking Pittsburgh at +1.5 offers valuable insurance against late-game swings. This earns a B grade for presenting solid value against a favored but somewhat vulnerable opponent.

Honestly, this feels like one of those sneaky good spots for the underdog to hang around. Pittsburgh’s rested pen and reliable home splits against tight lines make the extra run and a half pretty attractive, especially with Philadelphia not quite at full strength.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/06/2025 09:43