MLB
Phillies vs Braves
Hot start meets cold streak fade in divisional duel

Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies (7-3) VS Braves (2-8)
Apr 10, 2025 | 7:15 PM ET | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Atlanta Braves
Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+105) - Grade: B+
Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Fightin’ Phils in Atlanta, looking to steady a team that, despite an impressive 7-3 record, just dropped their first game in over a week. The Braves, clinging to a lone win after a brutal 2-8 start, respond with Max Fried, marking what should be a top-tier pitching showdown. However, the Bravos are still missing key contributor Ozzie Albies due to a left oblique strain, weakening an already ice-cold offense. The Phillies' bats have been alive, thanks in part to Bryce Harper's dominant .375 average against Atlanta over the last two seasons and Alec Bohm’s early-season pop. While Atlanta holds home field and slight odds-on favoritism, their offensive presence is sputtering, and one win doesn’t erase a troubling start. With Wheeler’s consistency and Philadelphia’s deeper lineup, there’s appealing value in backing the visitors at plus money. Recommendation: Take the Phillies moneyline at +105 as a solid value B+ confidence pick. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/04/2025 04:59
Over/Under Pick: Under 8, (-115) - Grade: B
Ranger Suárez tows the rubber for the red-hot Fightins, looking to rebound from the Phillies' lone recent misfire, while Atlanta's struggling offense—despite a brief spark in their latest win—will need to solve his nasty changeup to break through. The Braves limp into this matchup with a 2-8 record and remain without key bat Ronald Acuña Jr., still sidelined after offseason surgery. Meanwhile, the Phils, riding a 7-3 start, are leaning on Bryce Harper’s strong production so far and Nick Castellanos, who owns a .325 career average at Truist Park. But historical pitching duels between these teams, particularly with a sharper Suárez and a Hunter Greene making his home debut for the Braves, suggest limited run potential. The under looks particularly attractive considering the Braves' slumbering lineup and the Phillies' susceptibility to spreading their offense thin in road night games. While not a slam dunk, there’s just enough tilt in pitching and current team form to offer value on the Under 8. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/04/2025 04:59
Spread Pick: Phillies, -1 (-127) - Grade: B
Fresh off a 7-3 start to their season, the Fightin’ Phils look to shake off Monday's hiccup and bounce back in Atlanta, where the slumping Braves are trying to generate momentum after snapping a rough five-game skid. While Atlanta’s lone recent win and home-field advantage might create some hesitation, it’s hard to ignore the mismatch baked into tonight’s tilt. The Phillies’ offense, headlined by Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, has been torching opposing pitching, and both veterans have faired well historically at Truist Park. Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phils, has had Atlanta’s number with a 2.80 ERA over his last five starts against the Braves. Meanwhile, the Braves will likely turn to Bryce Elder, who struggled in 2024 down the stretch and once again hasn’t found his form, entering this game with a bloated early season ERA. On top of everything, Atlanta still misses the presence of ace Spencer Strider, who remains on the IL with a forearm strain, leaving their rotation exposed. Even if the Braves' bats, led by Ronald Acuña Jr., flash late-game power, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been lockdown through 10 games. Given the current form, rotation edge, and lineup depth, taking the Phillies to cover -1 offers solid value, though it carries mild risk with the Braves finally coming off a win. Grade: B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/04/2025 04:59
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