CBB

UNC vs SDSU

A Tar Heel Takedown or Aztec Uprising?

North Carolina

Tar Heels (13-7-22-13) VS Aztecs (14-6-21-9)

Mar 18, 2025 | 21:10 ET | Chapel Hill, NC

San Diego State
Moneyline Pick: North Carolina (-210) - A-

North Carolina looks to return to it's early march form against a San Diego State squad riding a good wave of momentum despite dropping three of their last six games, in a clash that carries added postseason weight as both teams are playing for a spot in the NCAA tournament proper. Historically, North Carolina’s frontcourt has caused major problems for San Diego State, with Armando Bacot posting impressive numbers in prior head-to-head matchups. Considering the stakes and the Tar Heels’ ability to exploit the interior, North Carolina’s favored moneyline at -210 earns an A- confidence rating, combining reasonable odds with a solid likelihood of success (Sources).

Over/Under Pick: Over 142.5, (-110) - A

North Carolina’s high-scoring backcourt aims to keep their NCAA championship hopes alive and capitalize on San Diego State’s somewhat thin perimeter defense. The Tar Heels (13-7-22-13) remain hungry for a rebound performance, especially with their sharpshooter who historically lights up the Aztecs (14-6-21-9) from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, San Diego State rides decent momentum, fueled by a hot-handed forward who consistently dominates post play, but they’ve shown a tendency to engage in shootouts when forced into a faster tempo. With both teams pushing the pace and boasting prolific scorers, this Over bet holds an A grade for its strong likelihood to hit and promises a rewarding payout at standard odds.

Spread Pick: North Carolina, -5 (-110) - B+

RJ Davis continues to anchor North Carolina’s backcourt despite the Tar Heels heading into this matchup on a bit of a stumble to end their regular season vs Duke, while San Diego State rides a similar run to end their regular season as well. Historically, the Tar Heels fare well against Mountain West opponents, especially at home, where their defensive rotations often stifle shooters. With a strong payout at stake if they do manage to cover the five-point spread, bettors can expect a determined North Carolina squad looking to silence doubters on its own hardwood, making this wager appealing for those backing a rejuvenated Tar Heels roster.

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