MLB

Yankees vs Mets

Subway bragging rights hinge on bullpen nerves and Bronx thunder

New York Yankees

Yankees (48-40) VS Mets (51-38)

Jul 06 2025 | 1:40 PM ET | Citi Field, Queens, NY

New York Mets
Moneyline Pick - New York Yankees (-225): B+

The Yankees continue to assert themselves as a contender in the AL, and their overall form shows in key areas heading into this matchup. New York’s recent stretch has been fueled by consistent plate discipline and bullpen strength. The Mets, despite a few recent wins, remain a team dealing with rotation gaps and a thinned-out bullpen. Their lineup, while dangerous at the top, has struggled to deliver against top-tier pitching, and the Yankees' depth and urgency in the divisional race point to them having the upper hand.

This bet leans into the stronger structure and situational advantage of the Yankees rather than betting on the Mets navigating another unstable pitching setup. The pick may come at a premium, but the matchup justifies the investment. Trusting a team with more consistent late-inning arms and a reliable starter feels like the smarter route here, especially with the broader context of a playoff push hanging over the Bronx club.

This prediction gets a B+ grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

Over/Under Pick - Over 9, (-110): B

Both teams enter this crosstown clash with playoff implications looming and offensive momentum trending upward. The Yankees, despite a short slump, continue to showcase power from the left side, while the Mets have surged at the plate, especially against right-handed pitching. With neither team boasting its top bullpen arms—each staff logging heavy weekend usage—this matchup leans toward extended innings and potential scoring bursts. The projected starters each bring mixed metrics to the table: surface-level success balanced by underlying vulnerabilities. That opens the door for mid-game rallies, especially as both clubs begin July with postseason positioning on the line and every win carrying weight.

This bet banks on offensive aggression and diminished late-game pitching stability. The pick targets nine combined runs, and with both lineups entering with productive trends and pitching staffs lacking fresh leverage arms, the Over feels like a smart angle. When you factor in the high-leverage atmosphere and league-wide scoring uptick during the summer months, this prediction has a strong foundation. It's a spot where back-and-forth scoring could surface early and push this total beyond the number well before the ninth inning.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made at 06/07/2025 09:46

Spread Pick - New York Mets, +1.5 (-115): B+

Momentum and roster depth shape the narrative as the Subway Series continues in Queens, with the Mets carrying recent form and situational advantages. While the Yankees boast elite top-end talent, their roster has been tested—particularly with their bullpen stretched thin and key arms still in flux. On the other side, the Mets have steadied their rotation and regained bullpen clarity, positioning them well to capitalize in a tightly contested game. New York's National League team also brings lineup versatility and situational hitting that has historically disrupted defensive alignments, adding further value to this prediction. With both teams deep into the season and every game carrying postseason weight, these subtle edges matter more.

This bet hinges on the Mets' ability to stay competitive at home, even if the Bronx lineup connects for a big swing or two. Taking the run and a half offers a cushion that fits the profile of a rivalry game likely to see late-inning drama. The pick leans into recent form, healthier pitching depth, and the tactical edge of playing on familiar turf. In a game that could hinge on a single miscue, grabbing the run line with the surging home team feels like the smarter move.

This prediction gets a B+ grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made at 06/07/2025 09:46

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