MLB

Mets vs Phillies

Underdog swing in Citizens Bank Park: value on hot Mets

New York Mets

Mets (45-29) VS Phillies (44-30)

Jun 20, 2025 | 7:15 p.m. ET | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies
Moneyline Pick - New York Mets (+192): B

The Mets enter Friday’s matchup riding a six-game loss streak but have been showing consistent production throughout the lineup, while Philadelphia faces the challenge of playing short-handed with several important contributors either sidelined or not at full strength. Even with a reliable arm on the mound, the Phillies are up against a New York club that’s generating runs efficiently and has already found success in previous meetings. The Mets’ starting pitching has consistently limited damage in this matchup, leaning on an elite out pitch that’s kept Philadelphia’s hitters quiet.

Though both teams remain in a tight divisional race and are still short of the season’s midpoint, New York’s edge in starting depth and bullpen freshness makes them the better-positioned side. Philadelphia’s home field advantage carries weight, but their lineup is compromised, and recent late-inning struggles make it harder to trust them in close spots. With the odds offering close to a 2-to-1 return, the value clearly sits with the Mets.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/06/2025 10:11

Over/Under Pick - Under 8.5, (-110): B

Friday’s NL East clash sets up as a pitcher’s duel, with both clubs arriving at the season’s midpoint in contention and leaning on reliable arms. The Mets ride a six-game skid into a matchup against a Philadelphia squad that’s won its last two, and both teams are dealing with lineup dents that strip away some early-inning punch. The absence of top-of-order catalysts reduces run potential, and the starting pitching matchup—featuring a less than stellar rookie against a familiar division ace—leans heavily toward suppression. Add in two bullpens posting sub-3.00 ERAs over the past two weeks, and there’s little reason to expect offensive fireworks.

Even with strong home-field metrics on Philadelphia’s side, the current version of their lineup lacks the thump to exploit them. New York’s approach has been more methodical than explosive during their recent run, and both managers are likely to play this one tight given how much head-to-head tiebreakers matter down the stretch. With key matchups on both sides tilting toward pitchers, the Under 8.5 holds solid value.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/06/2025 10:12

Spread Pick - New York Mets, +1.5 (-110): B+

The Mets enter Friday’s matchup on a six-game loss streak, showing consistent production and improved late-game execution, while the Phillies comes in after two straight wins. New York is near full strength, while Philadelphia continues to miss key contributors on both sides of the ball, including a top reliever and a core offensive piece. Even with a strong starter taking the mound for the home side, the matchup loses some edge as New York’s lineup has historically handled this pitching staff well, and their own bullpen has proven capable of closing tight games under pressure.

With the the mid point of the season coming ever closer and both teams locked in a divisional battle where every game could tilt the postseason picture. But it’s the sharper, healthier Mets who arrive with depth, and late-inning stability—factors that make them well-suited to stay within a run, if not win outright. With the visitors still getting +1.5 at favourable odds, this one stands out as a smart play.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/06/2025 10:12

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