Lobos vs Broncos
Boise State’s defense could slow down New Mexico’s high-paced attack
New Mexico @ Boise State
February 19 | 10:00pm ET | ExtraMile Arena
Grade B+: Boise State Moneyline
The Broncos have been one of the toughest defensive teams in the Mountain West, holding opponents to under 65 points per game at home. New Mexico’s fast-paced attack has been difficult for most teams to contain, but the Lobos have struggled in physical matchups, particularly on the road. Boise State’s rebounding advantage and ability to control the tempo will be crucial in keeping New Mexico from running the floor effectively. With Boise State favored at -205, their defensive consistency and home-court edge make them the stronger moneyline play. This is a B+ pick, as the Broncos’ defensive prowess gives them the slight advantage in this tight matchup.
Grade B+: New Mexico +4.5
New Mexico’s up-tempo offense has been difficult for Mountain West opponents to contain, and their ability to push the pace could pose problems for a Boise State team that prefers a more controlled style. The Lobos’ backcourt efficiency and ability to get to the free-throw line should help them keep this game within striking distance. While Boise State’s defense has been dominant at home, New Mexico’s offensive versatility gives them an edge in keeping the score close. With the Lobos getting +4.5, their ability to score in transition and break down the Broncos’ defense makes them a solid bet to cover. This is a B+ pick, as New Mexico’s offensive firepower should keep this one tight.
Grade B+: Under 152.5 Points
The Broncos have been one of the best defensive teams in the Mountain West, holding opponents to low shooting percentages and controlling the pace with their methodical half-court sets. New Mexico thrives in transition and loves to push the tempo, but Boise State’s ability to limit fast-break opportunities could force the Lobos into difficult half-court possessions. Additionally, both teams have been solid at contesting three-point attempts, which could further limit scoring efficiency. With the total set at 152.5, the defensive intensity from both squads suggests this game will stay under the mark. This is a B+ pick, as Boise State’s ability to control tempo favors a lower-scoring outcome.
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