MLB

Marlins vs Rays

Lightning flashes favor the home side in Sunshine State duel

Miami Marlins

Marlins (23-37) VS Rays (33-29)

06/07/2025 | 4:10 PM ET | George M. Steinbrenner field

Tampa Bay Rays
Moneyline Pick - Tampa Bay Rays (-155): B+

Tampa Bay enters this matchup riding a four-game winning streak, while Miami has dropped their last five games and continue to play without key pieces in its rotation. Tampa Bay’s starter brings his ground-ball style into a favorable matchup against a Miami lineup that’s struggled to generate consistent offense. The Rays hold additional edges at the plate, with several hitters in strong recent form and a history of success against Miami’s pitching staff. Miami’s offensive spark has been limited by injuries and lingering health concerns, further tilting the matchup. With both teams crossing the season’s midpoint, Tampa Bay’s superior run differential reflects its steadier form. While the price sits at -155, the overall advantages in health, form, and matchup quality make this a B+ play for Tampa Bay.

Honestly, this is one of those spots where Tampa Bay’s just got too many boxes checked. They’re playing better, healthier, and match up well across the board. The price isn’t cheap, but it’s fair given the edge the Rays bring into this one.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/06/2025 09:48

Over/Under Pick - Under 8.5, (-110): B

Tampa Bay enters on a four-game winning streak while Miami looks to avoid a sixth straight loss. Both teams send their most reliable starters to the mound, with Tampa Bay’s starter owning a strong career mark against Miami and Miami’s young arm returning from a brief absence. Offensively, Miami remains shorthanded with key bats still sidelined, while Tampa Bay has also seen some recent inconsistencies at the plate. With both teams also trending toward the under in recent interleague matchups, the total of 8.5 feels a bit high. The under earns a B+ grade for a solid combination of strong pitching matchups, limited offensive depth, and favorable trends.

Honestly, this one has all the ingredients for a low-scoring game. Both starters can go deep, bullpens are strong, and neither offense is at full strength. With no pressing urgency to gamble on fringe arms, the under looks like the right call here.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/06/2025 09:48

Spread Pick - Tampa Bay Rays, -1.5 (-140): B+

Tampa Bay enters this matchup on a four-game winning streak, while Miami continues to struggle, dropping five straight and dealing with a lineup weakened by injuries. Tampa Bay has managed to stay competitive despite missing key arms thanks to strong performances from its starter and one of the AL’s best bullpens. Offensively, Tampa Bay holds the clear edge, consistently producing against Miami’s pitching staff, while Miami’s lineup has cooled off significantly on the road. With postseason positioning slowly taking shape around the 60-game mark, Tampa Bay’s strong home record and roster depth provide a favorable setup. Laying the run line at -1.5 earns a B+ grade for a balanced mix of confidence and value based on form, health, and matchup dynamics.

Honestly, Tampa Bay just feels like the right side here. They’re winning at home, healthier, and getting good work from both the rotation and bullpen. Laying the run and a half isn’t too risky given how these two teams match up right now.

Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/06/2025 09:48

Share this post

Get the best odds on this prediction

Use our Live Odds Tool to get the best price on your favourite picks