NBA

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets

The defending champs lean on home edge as playoff seedings tighten

Memphis Grizzlies

Grizz (47-32) VS Rocky the Mountain Lion (48-32)

Apr 11, 2025 | 9:00 PM ET | Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Denver Nuggets
Moneyline Pick: Denver Nuggets (-305) - Grade: B-

Jokic and the Nuggets may only be riding a modest one-game win streak, but the defending champions are closing in on potentially locking up home-court advantage in the first round — and that late-season urgency can’t be overlooked. Memphis, meanwhile, comes into this matchup on a Loss. Historically, Denver has had the edge at home against Memphis, with Jokic averaging 23.9 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per contest against the Grizzlies. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. both active and healthy, the Mile High City has too much firepower — especially at altitude where the Grizzlies have struggled to match pace in the past. Given Denver’s home dominance and postseason implications, the Nuggets are the safer call, albeit at a steep moneyline price. Recommendation: Take the Nuggets straight up, but the low payout warrants only a B- grade due to limited return on investment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/04/2025 06:41

Over/Under Pick: Under 241, (-110) - Grade: B-

The Grizzlies have shored up their defense during this streak and have benefited from the return of Marcus Smart, helping limit transition buckets—something Denver, with Jamal Murray still dealing with lingering knee issues, hasn’t exploited well lately. Nikola Jokic, Denver’s cerebral big man, will undoubtedly carve out his typical near triple-double line, but with Aaron Gordon listed as questionable and Michael Porter Jr.’s shooting growing inconsistent down the stretch, Denver’s offense looks slightly muted. Both teams are essentially locked into their playoff positions, reducing desperation and possibly minutes for key starters. Memphis won the last meeting 112–108, and there's a similar vibe this time around—gritty and efficient, but not breakneck. At a lofty 241 total, the under has solid value. Still, with both squads capable of ignition from deep, there's moderate risk; wager wisely. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/04/2025 06:41

Spread Pick: Memphis Grizzlies, +7 (-110) - Grade: B

While the Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, remain a tough out at home, Denver has looked erratic since the All-Star break and hasn’t covered the spread consistently lately. Memphis isn’t at full strength—despite Desmond Bane’s return, Historically, the Grizz have played Denver close in April matchups, and even with the Joker anchoring the Mile High squad, the Bears' promising finish to the regular season suggests they can stay within striking range. The +7 line provides just enough cushion against a Nuggets team that, while talented, hasn’t put teams away convincingly of late. Take Memphis to bark louder than expected with postseason urgency bubbling. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/04/2025 06:41

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