NBA

Pacers vs Cavaliers

“Underdog momentum meets wounded giant in a Rust Belt rumble.”

Indiana Pacers

Pacers (50-32) VS Cavaliers (64-18)

13 May 2025 | 7:00 PM ET | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland

Cleveland Cavaliers
Moneyline Pick - Indiana Pacers (+260): Grade B

Indiana heads into Cleveland riding strong momentum and building confidence as playoff positioning tightens. The home side, on the other hand, has hit a rough patch and may once again be shorthanded in the scoring department. That sets the stage for a stylistic clash—Indiana’s up-tempo approach creating pressure on a Cavaliers defense that prefers a slower, more physical rhythm. If Cleveland’s top scoring option remains sidelined or limited, their offensive ceiling drops significantly.

The Pacers’ recent form, paired with a fully intact core and advantageous matchups on the perimeter and in transition, makes their underdog price tag too attractive to ignore. With playoff urgency on both benches, this one feels ripe for an upset—especially if Cleveland can’t generate easy buckets or protect the rim from the outside-in threats Indiana presents. It’s a mid-confidence play, but the return justifies the risk. Grade: B+.

Over/Under Pick - Under 230.5 (-110): B

A high-powered Indiana offense faces a Cleveland team that’s been dominating on defense all season—though recent injury management and fatigue could tighten both rotations. The Pacers love to push pace, but the Cavaliers' postseason-ready half-court style is designed to slow the game down, especially with home-court advantage and seed security already in hand. Both teams are without key contributors, which further saps transition energy and puts more weight on defensive execution.

With interior size on both ends and playoff-minded strategy emphasizing controlled possessions, the total feels a touch inflated. Even if the early tempo is brisk, expect things to grind in the second half. The Under offers a smart angle here, backed by matchup dynamics and situational sharpness. Grade: B.

Spread Pick - Indiana Pacers, +7.5 (-110): B+

The Pacers head into this pivotal Eastern Conference semifinal clash with a confident backcourt and renewed frontcourt health. Their floor general has been dishing double-digit assists consistently, and recent updates suggest their starting center is trending toward full availability. Meanwhile, Cleveland remains formidable but now deals with an additional rotation injury in the backcourt, adding pressure to a lineup that hasn’t always excelled against the spread when heavily favored.

Even with the Cavaliers’ strong regular season record, their margins tighten in playoff-style contests—particularly against teams that can stretch the floor and exploit foul-prone defenders. The Pacers’ bench has been a steady contributor throughout the postseason, giving them enough balance to stay within striking distance late. Taking the points offers solid value and a strong likelihood of cashing in what should be a close one. Grade: B+.

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