MLB

Astros vs Mariners

Houston’s hot bats clash with Seattle’s early season woes

Houston Astros

Astros (4-5) VS Mariners (3-7)

Apr 08, 2025 | 9:40 PM ET | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Seattle Mariners
Moneyline Pick: Houston Astros (-115) - Grade: B

Coming off a mini two-game win streak, the Houston Astros are beginning to find rhythm at the plate—just in time for their first clash of the season with the slumping Seattle Mariners, who have dropped five of their last six. Seattle’s key concerns include the continued absence of Victor Robles (shoulder fracture), while the rest of the outfield remains inconsistent. On the other hand, the ‘Stros will count on Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker—both of whom have feasted on Seattle pitching in the past—to continue their early momentum. Bregman boasts a career .304 average at T-Mobile Park, and Tucker has slugged four homers off Mariners pitching over his last ten matchups. The Mariners’ offense, even with Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford holding steady, hasn’t recovered from poor overall production in the opening weeks. On the mound, it's a premium pitching duel: Framber Valdez for Houston vs. Luis Castillo for Seattle. Houston’s bullpen, anchored by Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly, has been the more composed unit lately. With Seattle still struggling to find its footing and Houston building momentum, the Astros’ slight edge on the mound and at the plate makes the -115 moneyline worth a look. Back the Astros, but manage units carefully. Grade: B. Odds and availability are subject to change.

Over/Under Pick: Under 7, (+100) - Grade B-

With the recently icy bats of the Seattle Mariners, it's hard to expect a dramatic offensive breakout overnight. The M’s are riding a four-game losing streak and rank near the bottom of the AL in runs scored, while the Astros haven’t exactly blasted off either, losing three of their last four. The Mariners are still without Victor Robles, and Mitch Haniger has also been battling a slow start, leaving pressure on Julio Rodríguez and Ty France to carry the load. On the mound, Framber Valdez leads the charge for Houston—the crafty lefty owns a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts against Seattle. The Mariners counter with Luis Castillo, who has a solid track record versus Houston and tends to elevate his game at home. With two elite starters and two underperforming lineups, the Under 7 play is well-supported—though the low total restricts profit margin. Bullpen volatility (especially with Seattle missing Matt Brash) introduces some risk, but this profiles as a pitcher’s duel if the starters go deep. Odds and availability are subject to change.

Spread Pick: Houston Astros, +1 (-198) - Grade: B

After blowing a tight series to the A’s, the Seattle Mariners return home mired in a three-game skid and a grim 3-7 record. The M’s bullpen—missing key arms like Matt Brash and still easing back George Kirby from shoulder inflammation—has failed to protect late leads. Cal Raleigh remains active, but his slump at the plate hasn’t helped Seattle climb out of its offensive rut. Meanwhile, the Astros snapped a losing streak and arrive in Seattle with momentum, led by Yordan Álvarez, whose .340 career average and seven home runs against the Mariners make him a nightmare matchup at T-Mobile Park. The starting matchup features Framber Valdez for Houston and Luis Castillo for the Mariners—both capable of dominance, but Valdez has had more consistent success against this lineup. With Kyle Tucker also heating up and Houston’s bullpen showing more stability, the edge goes to the Astros in a close one. Even with negative juice on the +1 spread, the value lies with Houston’s rising form against a Mariners squad still looking for traction. Lean Astros on the spread or moneyline depending on pricing. Grade: B. Odds and availability are subject to change.

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