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Pick: Georgia Southern Moneyline (-205) - B
Georgia Southern enters this game with a decisive edge, having won three straight while Georgia State has dropped four in a row, struggling on both ends of the floor. A key factor here is the absence of Panthers' center Elijah Carter, who remains sidelined due to a knee injury. His absence leaves Georgia State vulnerable in the paint, an area where Southern's dominant forward, Adante Holimen, has historically thrived—he posted a double-double in both meetings last season. Additionally, the Eagles have been a different team at home, boasting a 7-3 record at Hanner Fieldhouse this year. With Georgia Southern in better form and Georgia State's defense weakening without their anchor in the middle, backing the Eagles at -205 is a solid wager even with the moderate cost. Given the circumstances, this pick grades as a "B" due to its high probability but limited return potential. [ESPN, KenPom, TeamRankings, Sports Injury Report]
Pick: Under 157 - B+
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Georgia Southern enters this matchup on a three-game losing streak, struggling to find offensive consistency, while Georgia State hasn't fared much better, dropping four of their last five. The Panthers' scoring woes have been exacerbated by the absence of their leading scorer, who remains sidelined with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Eagles' defense has been a bright spot, holding opponents under 70 points in five of their last seven games. Historically, these in-state rivals tend to play close, grinding battles, with each of their last three meetings failing to surpass this total. Given both teams' recent trends and the lack of elite offensive threats, expect a low-scoring contest that stays under 157. This bet holds solid value given the teams' downward trends and defensive play, earning it a strong B+ confidence rating.
Pick: Georgia Southern -4.5 (-110) - B
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Georgia State is in the middle of a brutal slump, having lost five straight, and now travel to Hanner Fieldhouse where they’ve historically struggled. The Panthers' offense has looked disjointed in recent weeks, with their backcourt struggling to generate consistent scoring, and things won’t get easier with Georgia Southern having won three of their last four games. Adding to the Panthers' woes, they are dealing with a key injury in their frontcourt, making it even tougher to hold up against a Georgia Southern team that is one of the better rebounding squads in the Sun Belt. Historically, Georgia Southern has defended their home court well in this rivalry, having covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in Statesboro. With momentum, home-court advantage, and roster health all favoring the Eagles, backing Georgia Southern at -4.5 is the better play. Given the underwhelming form of Georgia State and the Eagles' recent success, this pick earns a solid B rating.
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