NHL

Panthers vs Maple Leafs

“North-South claws sting, but the Buds might still bloom”

Florida Panthers

Panthers (47-31-4) VS Maple Leafs (52-26-4)

05/05/2025 | 7:00 PM ET | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline Pick - Florida Panthers (-130): B+

In a high-stakes playoff clash, Florida enters with the edge—both in terms of health and momentum. Their blue line remains mostly intact, offering more stability and zone control than a Toronto team still patching together pairings due to injuries. The Panthers’ defensive depth allows them to limit high-danger chances and dictate tempo, especially on special teams where they’ve quietly excelled. With postseason positioning still in play, Florida’s urgency is higher, and their ability to convert on limited chances gives them a slim but real advantage on the road.

That said, don’t expect a runaway. Toronto still boasts a top-tier offensive core capable of swinging momentum at home, particularly when the crowd gets rolling. But in playoff hockey, execution and discipline matter more than flash, and right now, Florida brings both. Laying modest juice on the road side makes sense—this one grades as a tight 4–3 type where the more composed squad ekes it out late.

Over/Under Pick - Over 5.5, (-115): B

In a playoff clash between two offensively gifted teams, both clubs enter with recent momentum and high-octane scoring threats at their disposal. With postseason seeding still on the line, the intensity should be high—but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a low-scoring grind. Each side has dealt with blue-line injuries that have left their defensive zones vulnerable, and goaltending questions remain on both benches heading into this critical tilt. Combined with elite forward groups that thrive off transition and power-play pressure, this matchup points toward chances—lots of them.

While playoff games often tighten up, this one shapes more like an outlier. Both teams have averaged over three goals per game this season, and neither is likely to hold back given their shared need to solidify position in the Atlantic. With speed on every shift and depleted defensive depth, this feels like a “first to four wins” kind of night. Taking the over looks like the right lean—it's not a lock, but it carries clear value and fits the tempo of what should be an up-tempo postseason shootout.

Puckline Pick - Florida Panthers +1.5 (-196): B+

In this postseason tilt between two already-clinched contenders, the defensive margin could prove thinner than the scoreboard implies. Toronto enters needing to rediscover rhythm after a string of recent losses and still grapples with gaps on the blue line. Florida, by contrast, remains relatively healthy in key areas and has thrived lately behind solid goaltending and structured four-line depth. Both teams may opt for conservative line management to preserve legs, especially with no elimination pressure hanging over the matchup.

Despite home-ice advantage and scoring upside for Toronto, this game doesn’t scream blowout. The visiting side has enough two-way talent and playoff-tested systems to frustrate offensive surges, especially if the tempo slows to a grind. Taking the underdog on the +1.5 puck line feels like the sharper move—safer than chasing an outright upset but still aligned with the expected playoff chess match. Grade: B for stability and situational value.

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