Stars vs Jets

Winnipeg heads into Game 1 of this playoff showdown with all the momentum, having carried over their late-season surge and posting another strong two-way effort in the series opener. The home team remains mostly intact, icing a more balanced lineup with better recent goaltending and top-line finish. Dallas, meanwhile, continues to adjust to key injuries, particularly in their forward depth, and hasn’t looked fully comfortable in hostile territory.

With the pressure ratcheting up and home-ice fans behind them, the Jets’ physical forecheck and consistent netminding provide a slight but meaningful edge. Add in their recent success against this opponent and the urgency to take a 1-0 series lead before the scene shifts, and the plus-money value on Winnipeg to grab another win feels like a sharp play. Grade: B—moderate risk with strong situational value.

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Game 1 features a tightly matched playoff tilt between two defensively disciplined squads, each backstopped by elite netminders and managing injuries to key top-six forwards. Both Winnipeg and Dallas rely on structure over speed, favoring neutral zone traps and heavy forechecking over end-to-end chaos—especially in the postseason grind. Their recent meetings have largely mirrored this low-event style, making a defensive chess match far more likely than a track meet.

With playoff benches shortening and offensive depth thinned, the under leans stronger. Stellar goaltending, careful line management, and the early feeling-out nature of a series opener all add up to value beneath the total. Even if one side strikes early, the response is more likely to be cautious than chaotic. Grade: B—a steady, sensible pick built on form, philosophy, and postseason tempo.

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Winnipeg enters Game 1 on a tear, powered by a top line clicking at the right time and anchored by elite goaltending. The Jets have won seven of their last eight, and with Connor Hellebuyck boasting a .934 save percentage in his most recent outings against Dallas, the home team holds both the form and matchup edge. The Stars limp in missing a key top-six forward and easing a top-pair defenseman back into action, which places heavy strain on Jake Oettinger—who’s dropped his last three road starts.

Dallas still carries top-end talent, but recent road struggles, a sluggish power play against Winnipeg’s top-ranked kill, and postseason pressure amplify the gap. With Winnipeg chasing top-seed glory and Dallas clinging to wild-card ground, the motivation is clear. Add in favorable home trends and a red-hot netminder, and laying the puckline at plus odds (+250) becomes a calculated swing worth taking. Grade: B—reasonable risk, strong return.