Cavaliers vs Pacers

Down 0–2, Cleveland heads to Indianapolis needing a response—and fast. The Cavs’ defense hasn’t translated into postseason stops the way it did in the regular season, and their half-court offense has struggled to match Indiana’s pace and floor spacing. With the Pacers getting timely scoring from their wings and controlling the tempo through two games, Cleveland must find answers on the perimeter while hoping their bigs can reassert some paint dominance.

That said, desperation breeds urgency. Expect Cleveland to lean heavily on its star guard tandem, tighten its rotation, and challenge Indiana to hit contested shots for four quarters. The Pacers are hot, but a regression game feels plausible, especially if Cleveland gets more from its supporting cast. Backing the Cavs +2.5 or ML (+120) in a bounce-back effort carries a B- grade—risky, yes, but playoff pride makes it worth the look.

Down 0–2 in the series, Cleveland enters Game 3 needing to rediscover its defensive identity. While Indiana has controlled pace behind a high-powered transition attack, Cleveland’s ability to suppress looks in the half court remains a key counter—especially with both teams navigating short benches. Jarrett Allen’s ongoing absence continues to test the Cavs’ rim protection, but the Pacers are also missing a key scoring wing, trimming Indiana’s offensive variety just enough to tilt the tempo downward.

With playoff rotations shortened and both clubs increasingly familiar with each other’s sets, don’t be surprised if this one plays out slower than the 226.5 total suggests. Even if Indiana continues to shoot well, Cleveland’s playoff survival mode and commitment to grinding possessions make the Under a strong lean. It won’t be pretty—but it might pay.

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Facing a 2–0 series hole, Cleveland arrives in Indianapolis with their stars under pressure but trending in the right direction. Donovan Mitchell remains the focal point after consistently lighting up Indiana’s defense in recent matchups, and the return of Jarrett Allen adds needed stability in the paint against Myles Turner. Meanwhile, Indiana—still without Bennedict Mathurin—leans heavier on its core, which could show signs of fatigue against a Cavaliers defense set to tighten the screws.

With the Cavs desperate to avoid the sweep and a solid road ATS track record to back them, the short spread feels justified. If Cleveland pushes pace early and forces Indy into its half-court sets, they should create enough separation by the final horn. A bounce-back spot for a team that’s too talented to go quietly.