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Moneyline Pick: Iowa State (-420) - Grade A-
Cincinnati enters this matchup badly in need of momentum, riding a three-game losing skid, while Iowa State currently enjoys a five-game victory streak at home. The Cyclones get a significant boost as star guard Jalen Adams returns confidently after recovering from a sprained ankle, with his presence historically troublesome for Cincinnati, averaging 21.2 points per game across their last four meetings. Meanwhile, the Bearcats remain weakened due to the recent injury to center Marcus Hill (out indefinitely with a wrist fracture), seriously impacting their interior defense and offensive rebounding. With both teams surpassing the 41-game mark, playoff seeding implications loom large, especially for Iowa State, who aim to secure a higher seed and home advantage through strong final performances. Although the payout is minimal due to the favored moneyline odds (-420), betting on Iowa State offers a safe wager given their current upward trajectory, healthier roster, and advantageous home court scenario.
Over/Under Pick: Under 136, (-110) - A-
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Cincinnati steps into this game amid a rocky stretch, losing four of their last five due in large part to offensive inconsistency. Compounding their scoring troubles, starting guard Aaron Mitchell remains sidelined with an ankle injury, removing a crucial piece from their perimeter threat against aggressive Iowa State defensive schemes. Iowa State rides into Kansas City having won three straight, anchored by their relentless defensive intensity that has limited opponents under 65 points in each victory. Historically, Cyclones forward Jalen Brooks has consistently disrupted Cincinnati's offensive flow, averaging nearly three steals per contest over their past four meetings. With Cincinnati's injury concerns hurting their chemistry, and Iowa State's recent defensive dominance peaking at the right time, don't anticipate a high-scoring spectacle. This game's style heavily favors a slower pace and challenging shot opportunities, making the under at 136 highly attractive with exceptional betting value.
Spread Pick: Iowa State, -9.5 (-105) - B+
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Cincinnati heads into this matchup riding the momentum of a modest two-game winning streak, but their struggles against Big 12 opponents remain concerning. Iowa State, on the other hand, is surging forward on a significant five-game winning streak, demonstrating dominant defensive efforts in their latest victories. The Cyclones' confidence will be further bolstered as they face a Bearcats squad battling significant injury setbacks, notably missing key starting guard Josh Reed, whose absence hampers Cincinnati's offensive fluidity. Additionally, historically, Iowa State has consistently performed well against AAC teams, covering in seven of their last ten matchups against non-conference opponents. Given Iowa State's current form, Cincinnati's injuries, and their difficulties against Big 12 level competition, look for the Cyclones to convincingly cover the -9.5 spread, offering solid betting value at -105 odds and warranting a B+ wager grade.
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