Vanderbilt vs Memphis

Vanderbilt's 10-0 run, with five straight wins and every outing over 80 points, rolls into FedExForum against a Memphis side that’s just 4-5 and coming off a 26-point loss at Louisville and an earlier home stumble that snapped an 11-game FedExForum win streak, and with rotation pieces Julius Thedford and Curtis Givens III recently sidelined, the Tigers’ backcourt depth still looks thinner than ideal against a veteran Commodores core led by Duke Miles, Tyler Nickel and Frankie Collins. With both teams still in the first quarter of the season—far from any 41-game body of work or true postseason clarity—this matchup is more about NET résumé building than direct tournament stakes, and Vanderbilt’s top-tier offensive efficiency, +22.5 scoring margin and balanced roster give them a clear edge despite Memphis’ typically strong home-court profile. Add in last season’s narrow 77-75 loss here that should keep Vanderbilt focused and motivated in a series where most games have been tight, and laying the heavy -335 moneyline on the road favorite grades out as a solid but not spectacular value—high win probability but only moderate return—earning a B+ confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:37am

Memphis’ swingy scoring profile—averaging the mid-70s with recent outputs like 73 in the blowout at Louisville and under 80 in the UNLV loss—paired with Vanderbilt’s last two wins landing in the mid-150s despite a season-long 95-plus points-per-game pace, hints that this one may not quite reach the lofty 159 total, especially with the Tigers’ guard rotation still not at full strength after absences for Thedford and Givens. Vanderbilt is defending far better than last year, holding opponents around 73 points on sub-40% shooting while still leaning on a half-court, mismatch-hunting attack driven by Miles, Nickel and interior anchor Devin McGlockton, and in a true road spot they’re more likely to tighten screws than to fully unleash their tempo for 40 minutes. Factor in that last time these programs met in Memphis the total landed at 152, and the most likely script is Vanderbilt in the high 80s with Memphis struggling to keep up enough to push this into the 160s, making the Under 159 a slightly favorable but still volatile play that earns a B- grade for combined likelihood and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:37am

Dug McDaniel and the Tigers have typically been tough at home, but a 4-1 FedExForum mark that already includes a double-digit loss to UNLV plus last week’s 99-73 drubbing at Louisville raises concern about whether they can stay within one or two possessions against a Vanderbilt squad that’s been winning by more than 20 per night behind Miles’ shot creation, Nickel’s perimeter flamethrowing and a deep, physically mature front line. Even with Memphis sitting 7-2 ATS and 5-1 ATS over its last six entering this week, those covers largely came with a healthier backcourt, and recent injuries to key wings like Thedford and Givens have shortened Penny Hardaway’s rotation and hurt their defensive versatility just as Vanderbilt’s ball movement (nearly 20 assists per game) and shooting have scaled to the road. While this series has historically produced tight scores—Memphis escaped 77-75 here in 2023—the current form, efficiency gap, and Vanderbilt’s undefeated momentum justify laying the -7.5, making the Commodores against the spread a B-grade play that balances a strong probability edge with standard -110 payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:37am