Virginia vs SMU

Virginia rolls into Moody Coliseum on a four-game heater while SMU has steadied the ship with three wins in its last five, but the Cavaliers’ current form and matchup edges make them a slight buy on the moneyline at this price. With Jacari White back from his wrist injury and the frontcourt of Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grünloh anchoring a defense that just handled Louisville on the road, Virginia looks far stronger than the version SMU swept last season, even if those two grinder losses — including Boopie Miller’s buzzer-beater in Charlottesville — keep this from being a slam dunk. SMU’s star guard recently missed time with illness but the Mustangs are closer to full strength now, and their guard trio of Miller, B.J. Edwards, and Jaron Pierre Jr. plus the size of Jaden Toombs and Samet Yigitoglu means this is still a hostile spot; however, models and markets nudging Virginia into the -125 range reflect their upgraded offense and top-25 efficiency profile. Given the road setting and SMU’s 11-0 home mark, this is more about trusting Virginia’s improved depth, defense, and late-game shot-making to finally flip a close one, so I grade the Cavaliers moneyline as a B- confidence play rather than a premium edge at the current number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:42([oddscrowd.com](https://oddscrowd.com/games/virginia-vs-smu-ncaab-january-17-2026/5496140/game-preview?utm_source=openai))

SMU’s offense has been electric all season, especially at home, but Virginia’s recent defensive surge and both teams’ profile against the number point me toward the under 153.5 in what should still feel like an ACC grinder more than a track meet. The Cavaliers have gone under in the majority of their games thanks to a slowed pace and rim protection from Grünloh and Ugonna Onyenso, and they just held Louisville and Stanford to inefficient outings while steadily climbing the defensive efficiency charts, even as their own scoring has spiked under Ryan Odom. SMU does push tempo and averages north of 88 points per game behind Miller’s creation and the inside punch of Toombs and Yigitoglu, yet we’ve already seen this matchup produce totals of 114 and 126 in last year’s two meetings, and Virginia’s ability to control the glass and limit second-chance threes should drag the possession count down relative to typical Mustangs home games. With both sides arriving in relatively good health and aware of how thin the margin is in the ACC standings, late-clock halfcourt possessions and a slightly tighter whistle than usual tilt this toward a competitive but moderately scored contest, making the under 153.5 a B-grade play that balances recent trends with the new, faster version of Virginia’s offense. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:42([oddsshark.com](https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/virginia-smu-odds-january-17-2026-2491354?utm_source=openai))

Malik Thomas and the Virginia backcourt have been cashing tickets lately against the spread, but laying the short -1.5 on the road at undefeated-at-home SMU is thin enough that I only grade this a C+ against-the-spread position despite leaning toward the Cavaliers. Virginia is 12-5 ATS this year and has covered in four of five league games while riding a four-game win streak, yet SMU is a solid 8-8-1 ATS with a strong home cover rate, and the Mustangs’ size with Toombs, Yigitoglu, and Corey Washington plus Miller’s history of late-game shot-making against this opponent makes another one-possession finish very live. On the health front, Virginia appears close to full strength with White back in the rotation and their front line intact, while SMU has trended back toward full health after Miller’s brief illness-related absence, which minimizes any hidden injury edge for the favorite. Given that SMU has taken the last two meetings — including that heartbreak buzzer-beater in Charlottesville — and that market numbers are tightly clustered around Virginia -1.5 with only modest implied edge from efficiency metrics, I’m siding with the Cavaliers’ improved spacing and depth to grind out a cover but only as a lower-confidence C+ grade rather than something to hammer. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:42([fanduel.com](https://www.fanduel.com/research/virginia-vs-smu-college-basketball-predictions-odds-picks-best-bets-for-1-17-2026?utm_source=openai))